Bonner-Denning Letter

REVERSION 2022

Last October, I issued FOUR ‘Code Red’ market warnings.

We were dead on the money with each one.

Here’s what I see coming next…

There’s been a ‘beginning of the end’ feel about markets recently.

You may well be sensing it.

If you heeded several warnings I gave late in 2021, you may well have already avoided early losses to your portfolio.

But where does this never-ending boom go to from here?

Was the bout of selling we saw at the end of the year a prelude to something bigger?

If not, how much more upside can there possibly be?

Will the Fed taper or not? Is there going to be an unexpected and significant corporate bond default in 2022?

And if this really is the start of the end of the bubble in everything…

…what, specifically, should you do right now?

These are questions I tried to answer on 22 October 2021.

These were a series of warnings…and defensive actions…intended for the year ahead.

...
Vern Gowdie

But I’ll admit…

Even I didn’t anticipate that everything would start moving…pretty much exactly as I predicted…before people even started putting their Christmas trees up.

The core thesis of my warning back in October was this: 

There are four key areas of danger — ‘Code Reds’. 

Consider scaling back,’ I advised. ‘Or liquidating your positions entirely.

When things reverse, market forces will have an awful lot of work to do in correcting the excesses.

I then presented a five-part plan for what to do with your capital from there, how to retreat to safety, and some moves to potentially profit from the wealth destruction.

The key idea is this…

If one or two of these Code Reds start moving dramatically south…that’s a decent sign we’re nearing a tipping point.

Central banks’ control is weakening. 

If all four begin moving in unison, then, in my view…

The ‘Great Reversion’ is underway…

In such a scenario, it’s ALL in the firing line…

Superannuation funds. Individual share portfolios. Crypto wallets. Property values. Corporate bond holdings. Even gold.

All the things that add up to a person’s current net worth are at risk of being worth a whole lot less come Christmas 2022.

So…

What’s happened since I first gave these decisive warnings last October?

Code Red #1 is growth tech stocks.

Michael Burry had these as his next ‘Big Short’ all through 2021.

My warning was a huge down move here was imminent.

Yet another generation of growth investors is walking into a well-set trap.

And, just like with the GFC, a very small number see exactly what’s coming.

They’re either selling — and leaving the dumb retail investors holding the bag (as always happens at the end-stage of an up-cycle).

Or…they’re making moves to actually PROFIT when the trend turns.

All the signs are indicating we’re in the late and highly-dangerous stage of the cycle with tech stocks.

I specifically targeted Cathie Wood’s ARK fund as the ‘canary in the coal mine’.

No one embodies the everything bubble quite like Cathie Wood and ARK.

It had given investors 40% annual returns for five years before 2021. But then the trend reversed spectacularly. 

Since my 22 October warning, Ark has gone from $117 to $80. A fall of around 45% in mere months.

Mainstream observers are now following my lead where there were virtually none last October…

‘Slowing Big Tech performance “a telltale sign of things to come”’, wrote CNBC Markets on 10 December 2021.

Code Red #2 is cryptos.

No need for me to spell out what’s happened since there. You can’t have missed it.

Colossal liquidations in the crypto markets commenced within two weeks of my 22 October warning.

One Bitcoin [BTC] trader lost $2.5 billion in a single day in December.

My 22 October warning was unequivocal about Tether. I warned this ‘Fed of the crypto world’ was the Trojan horse of the whole system.

By 11 December, Investing.com was asking: ‘Is Tether the Biggest Risk to Cryptocurrency?’ 

Code Red #3 is bonds.

Bonds are thought of as ‘safe’.

I warned ‘the bond market is going to be disaster zone. But just like it was in late 2007, no one is yet pricing in this outcome.

Several months since this initial warning, it appears they may be starting to do exactly that.

US Junk Bonds just experienced their biggest sell-off in more than a year.

Yield curves are flattening ominously.

‘Bond market flashes warning sign over global economic growth,’ the Financial Times is now reporting.

The final Code Red I flagged last October was China.

At that time, the guessing game was still on.

Would China’s Evergrande be the next Lehman Brothers?

Would the debt-laden property developer be thrown a lifeline at the 11th hour? If it did, what signal does that send about greed and moral hazard? 

Since then, Evergrande has defaulted. But the jury is still out on what this is going to mean in 2022 for the world economy...

What we do know is that if we see that big ‘reversion in the markets’ this year, China won’t be immune. The Middle Kingdom will be right in the middle of this next meltdown…

And so, we’ve seen fairly decent down moves in each of the Code Reds I highlighted.

These are yet to converge into a full-force crash in the markets.

But the tide’s shifting

Since my initial warning, several more big-time investors have joined my camp. One is Charlie Munger (Warren Buffett’s long-time colleague).

As reported in the Australian Financial Review on 3 December 2021 (emphasis added):

Legendary investor Charlie Munger said levels of excess in the stock market are crazier now than they were in the dotcom era…

He said the current environment was “more extreme” than anything he had ever experienced.

“The dotcom boom was crazier on the valuations even than we have now but overall, I consider this era even crazier than the dotcom era,” he said.

This bull market is still on, though.

Going into 2022, mainstream investors, brokers, and planners still refuse to face reality.

Sooner or later — mean reversion is going to take hold of this ‘more extreme’ market and inflict some serious damage on portfolios that aren’t prepared in advance.

You still have time to prepare.

I’ll show you a strategy for doing that below.

Will the United States Federal Reserve come in and save the day again if markets properly turn in 2022?

Maybe.

But are you willing to bet your life savings on that?

If it does, the next attempt to put a floor under asset prices will require stimulus on a scale we cannot yet fathom. And even that may not be enough…if all four Code Reds turn crimson this year.

Remember…

This is no ordinary uptrend.

It’s the most dangerous collection of overpriced assets in the history of mankind.

Do you really think this can go on forever?

Markets move in cycles.

Yet we tend to look at them, as we do life, in linear fashion.

We think the immediate future will be the same as our recent past.

And our past has been up, up, up.

This is the stock market right now…

Source: Ned Davis Research

Every valuation metric flashing red.

But, unlike other bubbles, this is not just a stock phenomenon.

It’s ALL assets.

And very few people think it will end any time soon…or in any meaningful or harmful way.

I think these people are gravely mistaken

A ‘Code Red’ is a term used by the military, medical professionals, emergency services, and even climate scientists.

When a situation escalates to a Code Red, the public is alerted to the dangers we face. And told how to prepare for the probable eventuality.

Yet, when it comes to markets, no such alarms are being raised.

Not by government. Not by mainstream media. And not by financial advisors.

So today, in this letter, I’m doing it.

Now, to be clear, I made a very good living — and was able to retire at an early age — directly because of the financial planning industry.

But in my view, it has slowly veered further and further away from the interests of its clients.

They don’t want you to see what I’m about to show you.

The same goes for institutional economists.

They’ve become professional marketers for the Everything Bubble. Always sticking to the script and promoting the institutional line — ensuring money continues to flow into their employers’ funds.

But here’s something these people will never admit to you…

The central banks are not all-powerful.

There are forces even they can’t control.

If you care about your personal wealth, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

As investing legend Jeremy Grantham states…

Make no mistake — for the majority of investors today, this could very well be the most important event of your investing lives.

Speaking as an old student and historian of markets, it is intellectually exciting and terrifying at the same time.

By the end of this research paper, you’ll see how this ‘Everything Bubble’ has to end. No matter what central banks do.

I’ll show you the growing importance of the four Code Reds that I correctly predicted last October.

You’ll have a much better idea of what to do with your investments right now to protect yourself from a seismic shift in the markets.

And you’ll be given a five-part plan that sets out all the smart moves to make with your money over the coming months...and years.

If you agree with me — you’ve some big decisions to make.  

These are decisions you have to get right.

For that reason, we’re not going to get bogged down with charts and economics and PE ratios.

Instead, we’ll start simple, with:

What I think you should SELL
right now, to avoid big losses

Because when then biggest boom in history ends, you will no longer be able to buy stocks, or property, or cryptos and just expect prices to rise.

More likely, the opposite will happen.

Most prices will start going down, not up.

Most prices…but not all prices…

That’s why, as well as giving you a specific plan to help your portfolio avoid the worst of the pain…we’ll also talk about several investments that I believe are most likely to go UP when the trend changes.

Two of these investments jumped 61% and 31% during the brief but brutal post-COVID sell-off in March 2020.

And that was just a sharp correction.

In a proper, prolonged down-cycle, these could feasibly return you many hundreds of percent — at the very time the wider market is imploding.

But before we get to that, you need to understand my reasoning behind the four investments capable of causing the most harm to your savings and investment wealth throughout 2022.

Starting with the most imminent threat...

CODE RED INVESTMENT #1
Tech stocks are deflating already. But this is just the start…

Investors were drunk on tech stocks before the pandemic.

Then lockdowns happened: and Bezos and the rest had all their Christmases come at once…

Imprisoned customers, with nothing but tech to turn to. And bored investors — with stimulus cheques to spend…steadfast in the knowledge stock markets don’t crash anymore — all looking for the next ‘hot thing’ to buy.

And buy they did…

The FAANGs — Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google — are now the greatest concentration of stock market wealth in history.

Take a look:

Source: Yardeni Research

The blue line is the valuation of those five stocks. It’s swamped the other 495 on the S&P 500.

See the green line?

That’s their ACTUAL REVENUE compared to those 495. So small you can barely see it.

Monster valuations…tiny revenue.

A pile-on towards more and more growth…when the fundamentals don’t back it up…is human nature at this stage of the cycle.

It’s what we do.

For this reason, tech is the spearhead of the Everything Bubble.

And the ‘smart money’ has started to act…

The Big Short against Big Tech

Dr Michael Burry is the most famous Code Red predictor on the planet.

He created the ‘credit default swap’ to bet against the housing market in the run up to the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.

Well…Burry is now warning of ‘mother of all crashes’ with ‘losses the size of countries’.

He’s taken out a huge $534 million short position against another big tech player — Tesla.

And he’s spent 2021 loading his hedge fund with ‘anti-tech’ companies.

Real asset holdings now make up 60% of his portfolio.

Most recently — he took out a huge short on the most famous tech growth fund in the world, ARKK Innovation.

Its portfolio is made up of the tech monsters — including Twitter, Facebook, Netflix, and PayPal.

The ‘stay-at-home’ techs — whose revenues are questionable now the world is getting out of lockdown — like Zoom, Teledoc, Shopify, and Peleton…

And the bulk of the ARK portfolio are smaller biotechs. 

Think of ARKK as a war wagon of tech companies haemorrhaging cash.

And quietly, as the wider market’s risen, ARKK’s started haemorrhaging investors as well…

Investors pour out of Cathie Wood’s flagship innovation
ETF at the fastest quarterly pace on record.

Bloomberg, 1 October 2021

This exodus has continued unabated since I first gave this warning last year.

In December, the ARK Innovation ETF went on to hit 12-month lows:

Source: Optuma

The ‘reversion to the mean’ is well underway here.

Cathie Wood’s ARK was the poster child of the everything bull market liquidity surge.

But the smart money is now exiting tech growth…because it’s NOT DUMB.

According to a recent investigation by Fortune magazine, in order for ARK to be worth its valuation, its holdings would ‘need to soar out of a $169 million hole and add almost $2.4 billion in profits.

If that’s not a Code Red, what is?

But let’s stop here for a second to
look at the ‘big picture’…

Because, frankly, the plan you’re about to get isn’t worth anything if we have the big picture wrong.

To really understand the fate for this market, you’ve got to go back to the 1950s. 

Out of the ashes of the Second World War, rose an economic phoenix.

The developed world transformed from war machine…to manufacturing hub.

Factories produced all sorts of goods and gadgets to satisfy increased consumer demand.

Advertising agencies — think the TV series Mad Men — pitched creative ideas to companies in a range of industries, mass-producing a range of new goods.

Cars. White goods. Televisions. Cameras. Cigarettes. Fast food. Fashion.

The campaigns worked a treat.

Households bought whitegoods from Westinghouse and General Electric. GM and Ford dominated the auto industry sales. Cars ran on fuel…think ExxonMobil oil. They also needed tyres…Goodyear. Philip Morris. Kodak. McDonald’s. Pepsi Cola.

None of this escaped the attention of investors.

These were the FAANGS of the 1960s and ‘70s. Except then they were called the Nifty Fifty. The drivers of the biggest and longest boom the world has ever seen.

They ushered in an age of endless growth.

At least that’s how it seemed to investors at the time…

But, just like now, investor belief
started to trump fundamentals

In an article on Michael Burry’s current short against tech, Ng Nhu Hann observes:

In the past 17 months, stocks with the word “tech” in their names have achieved a meteoric rise in their share price.

The ascend is mindboggling considering most of them having delivered only subpar earnings performance and have somewhat questionable track records.

Rewind to the 1970s, and that was the Nifty Fifty.

But when the cycle turned…their stock prices collapsed…

Source: Hussman Funds

After the carnage was over, post-mortems began...

In 1977, Forbes magazine published an article titled ‘The Nifty Fifty Revisited’.

Here’s an extract:

What held the Nifty Fifty up? The same thing that held up tulip-bulb prices long ago in Holland — popular delusions and the madness of crowds.

The delusion was that these companies were so good that it didn’t matter what you paid for them; their inexorable growth would bail you out.

Ring any bells?

Getting caught in seemingly never-ending growth periods is a generational rite of passage.

25 years later, history repeated…

The Industrial Revolution was about to be replaced by the Technological Revolution!

A new generation of investors believed — as they did in the 1970s — that this time was different.

When a boom is in full swing, no one can see a limit to the share prices of popular growth stocks.

No amount of reason can persuade investors that up-trends never last.

Especially when you have dominant players like IBM, Cisco, Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, and Apple. These were not your run-of-the-mill dotcom start-ups…they were the titans of tech.

Just like the stocks we were just talking about in Code Red Investment #1.

Throw in a big pharma like Merck, a banking giant like JPMorgan, and a fast-food whopper like McDonald’s…and how could you go wrong?

Here’s what those ‘can’t-go-wrong’ investments went on to do in the great tech bust of 2000…

Source: Hussman Funds

And therein lies the critical ‘Code Red’ of a market close to its peak.

Any sentence prefaced with…

‘You can’t go wrong buying…’

How many times have you heard that…tagged to so many different investments…over the last five years?

People also say, ‘it’s different this time’.

And in one way it is. But not in a good way.

Now the illusion isn’t confined to one type of ‘can’t go wrong’ stock.

EVERYTHING is immune to common-sense valuation metrics.

And NOTHING can go wrong.

Which brings us to your next Code Red.

To me, this one is the modern-day version of 2007 margin lending. There’s that same stench of speculation, blind belief, and outright fraud…

CODE RED INVESTMENT #2
Tether: the potential Trojan horse for
the entire global financial system

You’ve seen cryptocurrencies take another HUGE shellacking recently.

25–30% drawdowns in a single asset market in a single month are INSANE.

That goes without saying.

‘But that’s just what happens, it’s normal and to be expected at this price discovery stage,’ is what crypto enthusiasts will tell you.

Well, let’s put major crypto coins retreating a third from their peaks in mere weeks aside for a second.  

Going forward in 2022, I think the real Code Red is so-called ‘stablecoins’ — the quiet kingpins of the crypto space.

Many people don’t know that the most widely traded crypto isn’t Bitcoin [BTC]…or Ethereum [ETH]

It’s Tether [USDT].

At more than twice the size of its nearest competitor, Tether is the big dog of stablecoins.

Its ‘big idea’ is that it’s backed 1-1 by the US dollar.

That makes it the de facto source of liquidity for exchanges that can’t get access to traditional banking.

If you’ve followed my research in 2021, you’ll know I’ve done a deep dive into Tether’s operations.

This has not been easy.

It’s public knowledge that Tether has lied about its financial backing. We also know Tether window-dresses its financials to look good at a given moment in time.

A recent audit by Moore Cayman admitted it pretty much has no idea what’s going on inside Tether’s accounts.

As you’d imagine, that makes hard facts on this crypto hard to find.

But I’ve found them. And here’s my conclusion:

Tether is a fraud

More than that…

It’s a US$60 billion Code Red that could be about to expose just how brittle the foundation of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem is.

And Tether may be just one panicked sell session from outright collapse.

Some quick ‘did you knows’ for you…

  • Tether is the Fed of the crypto world.

Whenever it cranks up the coin printing presses, the price of bitcoin has gone up, as you can see here:

Source: CoinMarketCap

It has a crazy amount of power over the crypto world that most investors have no idea about. Just like the Fed’s rapid balance sheet expansion has created fake wealth in the real financial world…Tether has done the same thing in the digital one.

It’s running a scheme where the ‘house’ can rake off billions of dollars from creating an artificial market.

  • Tether has been found to ‘recklessly and unlawfully cover up massive financial losses to keep their scheme going.

That’s not me. That’s the New York Attorney General from findings in a recent study.

She concluded:

Tether’s claims that its virtual currency was fully backed by U.S. dollars at all times was a lie...

As such, it’s just been banned from doing business in New York — the US’s financial capital.

  • Tether is now on the radar of the US Justice Department.

They’re investigating possible bank fraud by Tether executives. And the legal action keeps coming.

We have a role to protect those investors from fraud’, says US Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

  • Tether is a massive Code Red because of its potential to cause ‘bank run-like behavior’.

That’s Governor Lael Brainard of the US Federal Reserve. Now, I’m no fan of central banks, but this is definitely a ‘better the devil you know’ situation… 

Fitch, one of the big three credits rating agencies, says a run on Tether tokens ‘could affect the stability of short-term credit markets’, especially if it happened in a wider ‘Everything Bubble’ sell-off.

My findings here could make up a two-hour video on their own, and we need to move on. I’ve recently published a two-part exposé called ‘Tether: A Disaster in the Making’, which gives you the full damning story.

It will blow your mind. 

Its aim is to make you wise BEFORE this Code Red explodes. And to show you what the wider implications could be…even for non-crypto owners. I’ll show you how to download it shortly.

First…

The core problem you face right now is this…

The dumb investors have lost all perspective.

Take crypto. ‘Bitcoin bugs’ forget it was only born after the GFC. And lifted by the rising tide of the greatest boom in history.

Its short 10-year trading pattern has only existed during the up-cycle!

We’ve no idea how this stuff will perform when the Everything Bubble pops.

All you’ve seen so far is the speculative nature of a fancy new asset.

Loss of perspective always happens right before a big downturn.

I saw it in the mid-‘80s…when I joined the ranks of the fledgling investment advisory industry. That was ‘peak entrepreneur’— when the likes of Alan Bond, Christopher Skase, and John Spalvins ruled the business pages. And the ASX’s ‘entrepreneurial index’ could only go higher.

Until it didn’t.  

That was my first lesson in ignoring Code Reds: People love buying high. But are far less inclined to invest when markets offer better value.

I saw it again in the late ‘90s with dotcoms.

By that time, I was in my private financial planning practice, Gowdie Financial Planning. We were recognised in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 by Independent Financial Adviser (IFA) magazine as one of the top five financial planning firms in Australia.

And then came the US housing bubble.

By that time, I was exhausted from not being listened to. I found it very hard to convince clients (and readers of my weekly ‘Big Picture’ newspaper column) that history was about to repeat once more.

This was part of the reason I sold the planning business in 2008 and retired at 49.

Some listened to my warnings. As ES writes, my advice ‘prior to the last crash helped me preserve my wealth. Getting out of the US share market at the peak was something I have not been able to achieve on previous occasions.

But, for the most part, my entreaties to ‘get out now’ fell on deaf ears.

I’m writing to you now because I sincerely believe that we’re at the exact same point YET AGAIN.

If you don’t think it can happen because central banks won’t allow it…well, you’re betting against the whole history of the markets.

The fact that so many people believe central banks will defy history shows you how delusional current investment ‘thinking’ is.

A bear market IS coming.

And when it does, you’ll need a plan — set in advance — for how to keep most of your wealth intact.

I’ve devised such a plan for you — split into five parts

It’s the exact course of action I’ve put in place for my own family wealth.  

Its essence is simple.

  1. First, you don’t want to buy assets at or even near the top. You want to buy them at or near the bottom.
  1. Second, you don’t want to OWN assets at or near the top. That’s the time you need to sell.

Obvious, right? So much so it feels patronising saying it.

But, just like every past peak, investors have amnesia on this basic principle.

That — when the cycle turns from bullish to bearish — fake gains ALWAYS turn into real losses…unless, of course, you have cashed out.

And sometimes that means cashing out of assets that are supposed to be ‘safe’.

Such as…

CODE RED INVESTMENT #3
A 75–90% loss for bondholders is a
‘high-probability event’

This is another Code Red that’s so far moved exactly as I predicted last October.

Bond markets are flashing a warning signal over the outlook for global growth as a combination of inflation fears and the spread of the Omicron coronavirus strain sparks a shift in investor expectations,The Financial Times is now reporting.

Bonds are supposed to be a safe haven.

Bond investors have first dibs, over stock investors, on a company’s assets. So they are inherently safer in a bankruptcy or a stock market collapse.

At least that’s the conventional narrative.

In an ‘everything bust’, the case for staying in bonds gets complicated…

Let’s do a little thought experiment. What chain of events might be set in motion if either of the first two Code Reds we’re talking about start to blow?

Price falls will cascade through global markets.

Triggering margin calls.

Sending more sell signals to the index funds.

Then the dominoes would begin to fall in the bond markets, starting with US junk bonds.

When you tally that all up, we are talking INSANE wealth destruction.

There’s around US$34 trillion alone in American share value at risk of being vaporised.

The US Corporate Bond market could shred another few trillion.

Cryptos…add another half a trillion, or more.

We haven’t even considered any losses from the booming US housing market.

And we are talking only the United States here.

The reason we talk about US numbers is the US is still financial ground zero of the world. Whatever happens there, ripples out to all of us.

This is the kind of disaster an Everything Bubble popping exposes you to.

The trouble with bonds is that when the US Fed tries to save the stock market, they’ll flood the economy with more fake money — just like they did in 2008…and when stocks crashed again in early 2020.

And we know where that leads: a substantial decline in the value of the US dollar and rising inflation.

As my friend Dan Denning puts it:

Since bond yields come as fixed-dollar returns, they are very sensitive to increases in inflation. In the 1970s, bonds were called “certificates of confiscation.”

We doubt that the next bout of inflation will treat bonds any better. Most likely, it will be much worse.

Our guess is that it could result in a 75%-90% loss for bondholders.

That’s a pretty big loss. And like the loss in tech stocks, it is a high-probability event.

So, what does this all mean for YOU, specifically?

It means you need to ACT NOW

When the market is this distorted, your first goal is not losing money.

If you’ve made the right moves BEFORE the trend turns, you’ll be winning while 99% of investors are losing.

So that’s priority one.

Why a growing number of investors ‘would walk over broken glass’ for Vern Gowdie

I researched and listened to Vern's advice and 35 years of saving has been salvaged. I would NEVER be able to make that up again!

N J F King

He is a fountain of good investment knowledge and wisdom, constant encouragement to stay the course and a friend in times of need (even though I never met him). I am sure he is a big reason why (as my close friends often point out) I am lucky to be doing quite well.

Marcel

He has seen it all and has the courage and the experience to stay the distance. He has a plan and follows it. I now have a plan. Thank you, Vern.

Chris

Few other commentators are as open and frank as Vern and his advice has been something I have followed with confidence and anticipate when the pin pricks the bubble, I will feel even more confident to have followed his sensible advice.

T Holroyd

I have shared with my family Vern’s comments and facts regarding the inevitable financial market collapse. Gratefully most have positioned themselves to guard against the downturn.

Shane D A

I follow Vern's instructions to the letter and would walk over broken glass if he suggested it.

Neil Sweetman

But you should think beyond these initial evasive actions, too…

We’re talking about a scenario where, as Michael Burry puts it, ‘crypto falls from trillions…meme stocks fall from tens of billions…Main Street losses will approach the size of countries.

You need a strategy for what to do while all this is happening.

That includes making sure you’re NOT getting led by ‘experts’ to even more losses…

This happens in every cycle reversal.

Since 1986, I’ve watched financial planning evolve from a cottage industry into a ‘culture of sales’.

Traditional financial planning has been deeply flawed for years. That’s another reason why I sold out in 2008. But going into 2022…the investment industry itself is another screaming Code Red.

See, it’s not just your money that’s chained to all kinds of overvalued asset markets.

Australia’s financial sector is now massive. Their livelihoods are tied to this giant Ponzi scheme. They don’t want the ride to end.

Until the crash arrives — and even during it — my view is that the investment industry will use every trick in the book to keep you in the stock market.

They will change what they promise you…and pivot to terms like ‘safe and secure’, ‘guaranteed income’, ‘low volatility’, ‘defensive assets’, etc.

They will make out that you’re stupid for wanting assets like cash, gold, and index funds — which also happen to have the lowest fee structures. Funny that!

They will continue to say that they’re working for you…instead of themselves.

They will likely pump an even bigger portion of the fees they extract from you into marketing campaigns to convince you to stay in an increasingly unstable market.

They will continue to create the illusion that highly priced professional management delivers superior performance…when all the data shows that’s just not true…

In short: the investment industry will do everything possible to maintain its influence over your life.

You need to RESIST this at all costs

And finally…

You should start thinking now about having something else in the works…

A ‘shovel-ready’ strategy for getting back in when the Everything Bubble has deflated. When the WHOLE WORLD hates growth assets. Before the next uptrend begins.

I’m not anti-stocks, anti-speculation, or anti-growth. It may come across like that in this presentation. But that’s simply because of where we are right now!

Truth is, in a ‘normal world’, buying shares in great businesses with great prospects is one of the best ways to create wealth. I’ve been the happy beneficiary of that myself many times.

When all this is over, we will reach a new normal.

At some point, the cheapest prices you have seen in your lifetime will likely present themselves.

That’s another historical truth. And you should be ready.  

If you’ve found what you’ve seen so far compelling, you need a strategy that encompasses all of the above.

So let’s touch on that now…

A before, during, and after strategy
for the end of the Everything Bubble

This is a plan of five steps.

You can pick and choose which ones of them to implement.

Most of them are defensive.

But you’ll also find several moves included which, if my calculations are correct, could see you making gains EVEN AS MOST VALUATIONS FALL.

The very first thing you need to do, though, is find out the most dangerous things you’re personally exposed to.

And get LESS exposed.

Which brings us to:

STEP #1
LEAVE THE POKER TABLE UP…NOT DOWN

I’ve prepared a resource to help you do this.

It’s called ‘The Everything Bubble Cash-Out Strategy: How to Smartly Exit Code Red Investments Now’.

History shows the feds can’t keep markets this way forever.

Eventually something will blow — might be one of these Code Reds, might be something leftfield.

Something will happen to cause faith in their manipulation to collapse.

And so, too, will the collateral supporting trillions upon trillions of highly leveraged dollars.

And then, the end credits start rolling on this Everything Bubble…

You want to be cashed out before that happens.

So, what’s the best way to do that?

You can’t just blanket sell everything, all at once. That’s neither smart nor practical.

The Everything Bubble Cash-Out Strategy will prioritise Code Reds with a few things in mind: how and when they might finally start blowing up…the level of systemic risk they pose…how much your own portfolio might be exposed…and what, if any, cash-out actions you should think about taking right now.

...

You’ll see that not every Code Red is equal.

Some have been bubbling away for years.

Some affect the wider system.

Others have more direct ramifications for the investments you own right now.

Like this one…potentially the MOST dangerous one for Australian investors…

CODE RED INVESTMENT #4
Get out of China’s blast radius

Evergrande wasn’t the Lehman Brothers moment that some predicted.

But now that it’s in default, the question of what happens next in China will persist in 2022.

Evergrande owes a lot of money. Credit ratings agency Fitch has declared that overseas bonds issued by the Chinese developer are now in default.

This is only the tip of the iceberg that is the Chinese property sector.

Is this just the first domino to topple in 2022?

Well, China’s debt-laden property developer is actually just one symptom of a much bigger Code Red. One that has bigger implications for your Australian investments than you might imagine. We go deep into those in ‘The Everything Bubble Cash-Out Strategy’.

Evergrande is not the only imperilled Chinese developer.

There are several to watch like a hawk this year. Fitch has also downgraded Kaiser, another in the sector.

Iron ore prices collapsed 50% from their highs in 2021. The sector is beset by bearish forces in 2022. Prices could have a long way to fall still, with huge implications for Australia and your portfolio (which likely has exposure to resource stocks). 

You don’t want to be knee-jerk about this.

But you also don’t want to be caught out by this Code Red…because it is so close to home.

We have NO IDEA how China will react when the Everything Bubble starts to deflate.

The China of tomorrow is shaping up to be very different to the one of yesterday.

The insolvency legacies of the debt-funded excesses need to be addressed…not papered over and/or added to.

Somewhere, somehow, and in some way, the central banker quacks in charge of this debt-funded growth experiment were always going to create a corporate Frankenstein.

Truth is there are a multitude of Evergrandes in the system…they just haven’t made the headlines…yet…

Should China’s economic miracle be brought down to Earth…how’s that going to further damage Australia’s economy?

Australian investors with a lifetime of wealth built up should have this on their radar…and take appropriate actions.

The Everything Bubble Cash-Out Strategy will help you with that.

It’s advice I genuinely don’t think you’ll
get anywhere else right now

For that reason, I really do urge you to download and read this resource. I’ll give you instructions on how to do this in a few minutes.

As I’ve said, these are key decisions you MUST get right.

The Everything Bubble Cash-Out Strategy: How to Smartly Exit Code Reds Investments Now is extensively sourced and argued…so you can make these decisions with your eyes open.

I’ve talked about ‘dumb investors’. It’s a crass term. But, unfortunately, it’s an apt one. One of the sure-fire indicators of a bubble peak is when retail investors reach ‘Peak Dumb’ and go all in.

What almost all investors right now don’t realise is they are marks and bagholders.   

As Charles Hugh Smith at The Daily Reckoning puts it, professional investors from Collins Street to Wall Street have:

…been patiently waiting for retail to go all-in so the pros can sell all the over-valued stocks to the euphoric, trusting retail traders, who will continue to buy the dip and rotate into the next hot meme-stock until their fortunes have dwindled to spare change.

The con requires euphoric confidence that stocks only go up forever, and every retail trader is confident in their ability to ride the wave to riches.

We’re finally at that summit of euphoric confidence, where faith in the Federal Reserve is literally a religious experience.

Perhaps the most important thing you can do right now is educate yourself out of that mindset. Which leads us to:

Logical, thoughtful, honest advice. I am following Vern to the letter.

David H

I researched and listened to Vern's advice and 35 years of saving has been salvaged. I would NEVER be able to make that up again!

N J F King

He is a fountain of good investment knowledge and wisdom, constant encouragement to stay the course and a friend in times of need (even though I never met him). I am sure he is a big reason why (as my close friends often point out) I am lucky to be doing quite well.

Marcel

He has seen it all and has the courage and the experience to stay the distance. He has a plan and follows it. I now have a plan. Thank you, Vern.

Chris

Few other commentators are as open and frank as Vern and his advice has been something I have followed with confidence and anticipate when the pin pricks the bubble, I will feel even more confident to have followed his sensible advice.

T Holroyd

I have shared with my family Vern’s comments and facts regarding the inevitable financial market collapse. Gratefully most have positioned themselves to guard against the downturn.

Shane D A

I follow Vern's instructions to the letter and would walk over broken glass if he suggested it.

Neil Sweetman

STEP #2
DON’T BE A ‘MARK’
OR A ‘BAGHOLDER’

I’ve written a book on this very subject.

It’s based on working INSIDE this very apparatus since 1986.

It’s never been a more urgent read. It’s called How Much Bull Can Investors Bear? and gives you strategies on:

  • ASSET ALLOCATION IN A BEAR MARKET: A five-part mix that aims to work for you, not them
  • REDUCING FEE AND TAX FRICTION: These slow down the compounding rate of return you can achieve. It’s imperative to minimise both before the trend turns.
  • EMOTION MANAGEMENT: This chapter is devoted to staying ‘cool’ and making smart decisions while everyone else is losing their minds.
  • AVOIDING CLASSIC BEAR TRAPS: How the investment industry’s ‘articulate incompetents’ will continue to try and sucker you well into the bear market. And actions you can take to counter this.
  • AVOIDING CLASSIC FINANCIAL PLANNING SCAMS: Lessons, tips, and cautionary tales from real Aussies in the investment trenches…I asked readers to send me their experiences — good or bad — with financial planners. This chapter is the result…

For instance, as soon as the trend turns, you’ll see a flood of money go into annuity products.

People will swap their vastly reduced capital for a guaranteed income stream (even if it is their own money being fed back to them).

Don’t fall for this. It will be a trap.

...

As one of my readers, Brett, puts it:

I cannot afford to be manipulated as I have been in the past by “FINANCIAL PLANNERS” who clip the ticket at your wealth’s expense. I love the research and boots-on-the-ground knowledge Vern, a big thank you!

The overall message in How Much Bull Can Investors Bear?: The industry — due to an overreliance on permanent growth — will be part of the problem, not the solution.

I’m going to show you how to download a personal copy in a second.

And all of this will be taking place inside a radically transforming Australia…

STEP #3
PREPARE FOR AUSTRALIA’S ‘LONG BUST’

While Evergrande is capturing headlines, it really is only part of a much bigger story. China is transforming itself.

Counting on the Middle Kingdom to once again save our overpriced housing market and overly indebted household sector is, in my opinion, a serious error of judgement.

If you think COVID disrupted Australia’s ‘normal’…wait till you see what happens when the global debt super cycle collapses…

House prices have been an unexpected beneficiary of the pandemic — where do they go when the Everything Bubble pops?

How safe are our banks? How do you best protect your savings if they come under pressure? Will the government remove the four-pillar legislation and allow one of the others to buy a failing bank?

How vulnerable are the trillions we have in superannuation? Should you switch your managed super savings to a different option now…before it all kicks off? If you’re not self-managing, should you switch to that?

And what areas of the Australian share market are especially vulnerable?

I’ve written a second book on this topic. It’s called The End of Australia: The Real Story Behind Australia’s Coming Economic Collapse and What You Can do to Survive It.

And its focus is on what happens specifically in this country when the Everything Bubble ends. It will show you:

  • HOW TO PROTECT YOUR BANK SAVINGS. Why the smaller credit unions, banks, and building societies could be better places than the Big Four to stash your cash in the next crisis…and what I’ve done to protect my own bank savings…
  • HOW TO PROTECT YOUR SUPER SAVINGS. Most of the $3 trillion pool of superannuation is exposed to growth assets. That is a huge Code Red. This book looks at ways you can mitigate this risk.
  • HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM HUGE ECONOMIC CONTRACTION. With restricted credit and cash and battered asset markets…what will this feel like for the average Australian? With China (due to its massive debt load) being incapable of acting as a white knight to create another mining boom…what’s this going to look like and where are you most vulnerable?
  • HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF AGAINST SOCIAL UNRAVELLING. Lockdowns have brought social unrest to Australian streets again. This is just a taste of what could come. Rebellion — whereby sufficient numbers within society identify with new goals and new means — is a very real possibility.
...

A point we keep coming back to…and what ordinary investors fail to grasp…is before the headline ‘CARNAGE ON THE ASX’ becomes mainstream news…the smart money has already quietly taken money off the table.

We’ve seen this all through 2021 in tech.

And we may well have seen it already, here in Australia, with the big iron ore stocks.

The End of Australia gives you a picture of what 2022 and 2023 might look like in this country if the cycle fully turns. And gives you practical strategies to employ now with everything you have saved and invested here.

I’ll show you how to download this resource in a second as well.

There’s plenty of advice out there showing
you how to stay on this ride…

Stock tip-sheets, trading services, crypto advisories, etc.

Very, very few are showing you precisely how to position yourself for when the ride ends.

The following three resources give you specific guidance here:

  • ‘The Everything Bubble Cash-Out Strategy: How to Smartly Exit Code Red Investments Now’
  • How Much Bull Can Investors Bear?
  • The End of Australia: The Real Story Behind Australia’s Coming Economic Collapse and What You Can do to Survive It

Here’s how you can access them now

If I were in practice today, everything we’ve been discussing would be commercial suicide.

Nobody wants to hear that most of their ‘wealth’ was conjured out of thin air!

Or that it’s going to get turned back into thin air, unless they do something now.

The majority of clients would laugh, scratch their heads or get angry. Then find a planner that tells them the next thing to buy…not what to sell.

But every bubble blows up.

Every debt gets settled — one way or another.

Unfortunately, those who ignore this basic fact will get what’s coming to them in time.

My weekly dispatch, The Gowdie Letter, is for a different kind of investor.

I invite you to try it for yourself today.

If you do, you’ll instantly receive the three resources outlined above.

And the subscription, as you’ll see in a second, is next to nothing.

In fact, believe it or not, it’s less than the annual price of Netflix.

How can that possibly be? Well, The Gowdie Letter is not, and has never been, a money-making exercise.

All the small annual fee does is cover the costs to have the letter copy edited, produced, and emailed out.

And you can even ask for that tiny subscription fee back within 30 days if you wish. (You can keepThe Everything Bubble Cash-Out Strategy: How to Smartly Exit Code Red Investments NowHow Much Bull Can Investors Bear?...and The End of Australiaeven if you do that.)

So what is The Gowdie Letter?

Rather than bang my own drum I’ll let my subscribers explain…

The Gowdie Letter has been a wonderful education for me.

I have found Vern Gowdie’s service to be the most informative and uniquely Australian contrarian viewpoint around.

The Gowdie Letter has given me practical solutions that will allow me to safeguard my family’s wealth in the event of a financial meltdown.

I highly recommend The Gowdie Letter to any Australian looking to improve their knowledge of the contemporary macroeconomic landscape and to improve their personal capital investment and/or Superannuation choices.

Joshua Van Asha

Vern is a voice of considered reason, honesty and plain speaking which in my experience is far from common in financial planning circles.

Many who worked in the FP industry are motivated only by how much they can extract from their customers; Vern is NOT one of them and deserves an Australia Day honour for it. Long may he continue…

                                                                                                Rod B

I’ve subscribed to several financial and economic advisory services over many years. Vern’s common sense approach, his erudite writing and human decency put him number one in my estimation.

I trust him and his judgment and admire how he has stayed on message when the investment world has gone mad. Thank you, Vern, for a fine job.

John Wood

I started the Letter for a simple reason.

It can take decades to build wealth and moments to destroy it.

Hopefully, my experience, knowledge, and empathy can assist you to make informed choices about how best to manage your finances for what MUST come.

With The Gowdie Letter, there’s no vested interest in the status quo.

No hidden fees. No referral backhanders. No trailing commissions. No hourly consultation charges. No quotas to meet. No ‘percentages of monies handled’. No allegiance to any bank, brokerage, fund, or institution. No advertising (so no advertisers to keep happy).

No ‘culture of sales’ masquerading as sound guidance.

The Gowdie Letter has one simple aim: to see you through the next trend-turn with as much of your wealth intact as possible.

A voice of sanity and common sense
in a shaken unravelling world.

Philip Jacobson

My newsletter is designed to help protect you from a massive asset price deflation, whenever it comes. As well as a predatory financial industry… taxation...debt defaulters...increasingly authoritarian government...potentially more ‘black swans’ like COVID-19...

The idea is that you’re prepared.

And that you feel like someone has your back.

You will be among an EXTREME MINORITY of
investors if you join me

As TH, a doctor, puts it, The Gowdie Letter is a ‘rational perspective in a complex irrational environment. As a medical specialist, I place high value on his advisory.

Few people strive for this perspective.

In fact, few people receive even mainstream financial advice.

According to Adviser Ratings, only 11% of Australians had an adviser in 2020.

And you can bet they’re not being advised on any of the issues we’ve talked about today.

The official fee to join us is $149 a year. Keep in mind:

*** The average fee for ‘regular’ financial advice
in Australia is $3,256 a year ***

So, you see what I mean when I say The Gowdie Letter is almost a charitable enterprise by comparison.

But…because of this unfolding crisis and the urgency of this information…we’re cutting that price down by another $50.

Meaning:

Just $99 a year

And…I don’t even want you locked into that.

This $99 is fully refundable within the first 30 days.

A recent survey found the average financial planner client’s investment balance has risen with the bubble to $744,000.

That is not chickenfeed.

Whether you have more or less than that, it’s ultimately you that has to guard it.

So, it’s important you judge everything I send you carefully, to see it aligns with that goal.

If it doesn’t, you can get a full refund of that $99 inside 30 days.

For further context, though, that $99 for one year of The Gowdie Letter would currently buy you ONE-FORTY-FIFTH of an Amazon stock.

Think about THAT for a second…

And I’ll be very blunt:

Should events play out as history dictates, this could be the best $99 investment you ever make

As Graham V says:

Vern’s letters help keep me grounded in amongst all the white noise from overheated markets and Government fiscal mayhem.

We allocate 25% to 40% of our portfolio risk to align with Vern’s recommendations.

There are actually two more resources that $99 fee will entitle you to if you join us now.

The first of those is aimed at helping you actually grow your capital as the cycle turns. 

Once the Everything Bubble penny drops, then markets — shares, bonds, cryptos, and yes, even property and gold — are headed lower.

In some cases, much lower.

Speculators and investment professionals will find ways to take advantage of this. As they always do. And there’s no reason why you shouldn’t be able to do the same.

Which brings us to:

STEP #4
FOR SPECULATORS ONLY:
MAKE MONEY WHILE PEOPLE LOSE MONEY

If you take this $99 offer today, there’s another resource I’ll send you.

It’s called ‘Two Ways to Make Money While Most Investors Lose Money’.

When you talk about the end of the Everything Bubble, the question of ‘But won’t central banks just keep printing money?’ comes up.

The short answer to that is you can flood the trough…but the horse doesn’t have to drink.

If society adopts a more risk-averse mindset, then central banks will be pushing on a string.

However…betting against their power is a big risk.

You’ve seen what they’ve been able to do with their QE and stimulus since 2009 and through the pandemic.

The Gowdie Letter is all about long-term wealth protection and creation.

My interest in the day-to-day movement of markets is fleeting.

For me it’s about identifying trends that have the potential to make or break your capital. Staying well clear of high risk/low reward situations. And participating in low risk/high reward opportunities.

In this case, however, I’m making an exception…

If you think an end is coming…and you’re willing to be one of the very few on Earth willing to BACK this side of the bet…for big potential profits…I’ve identified two ways to do so.

You’ll remember the last big market panic, right after COVID emerged.

Between 21 February and 16 March 2020, the ASX 200 shed a rather scary 32%.

...

At the exact time this happened, the investments I’ll show you in ‘Two Ways to Make Money While Most Investors Lose Moneyrose 61% and 31%.

I believe that’s just a tiny indication of how far they could potentially rise if we see a full global bust. 

Now, these two moves are for speculative money only.

Don’t even go near them with money you can’t afford to lose.

Even if you go near them, you’ll need to be prepared to lose in the interim if markets keep on rising.

They only go up if the trend reverses

If you agree a down-leg is coming…and have the temperament to cope with losses while waiting for the anticipated correction…

…then please read Two Ways to Make Money While Most Investors Lose Money’ and make an informed decision on whether you open one or both of these positions.

Vern’s comprehensive analysis has been convincing and assuring from day one. I am sticking with the Gowdie outlook for the future of the share markets.PB

Each of these four resources will be ready to download if you take up this $99 offer right now.

Look, clearly, I don’t have a crystal ball. Perhaps this will be nowhere near as bad…or as long…as my modelling suggests.

All we know for sure is this: 

You now live and exist in a system that relies on debt, central bank largesse, and leverage. 

The more central banks print, the more debt is piled up…the more leverage people take on, the greater the instability of the entire system.

All this seems fine…until the system destabilises. The euphoric herd gets frightened and stampedes. Buyers vanish. And prices start to plummet to levels that seemed ‘impossible’.

When that happens, the world as we’ve known it ends.

And a new era begins.

Which brings me to our final step. Perhaps the most important one of all…

STEP #5
GO ON THE ‘OFFENSIVE DEFENSIVE’

My publishing company is called Fat Tail Investment Research.

For the most part we have cordial relations. But I’ve been in a pitched battle with them in recent weeks. Particularly with their accounts department.

That’s because — as part of this $99 deal — I’ve insisted on giving you an add-on that is worth a LOT of money.  

Understanding what’s coming is one thing.

Making the right decisions with your wealth based on this understanding is another thing entirely…

Which brings me to this valuable tool.

You see, as well as The Gowdie Letter, I run an intimate wealth counselling service. It’s interactive…meaning you ask me questions, and I give you answers.

As such, it can only accommodate a small number of members at any one time.

For this reason:

We have only ever opened the
doors to this advisory ONCE

It is the only service Fat Tail Investment Research has ever published where this is the case. (Which is why you’ve probably never heard of it.)

Today, we’re opening the doors, briefly, for a second time.

And I’m WAIVING the fee

Take this $99 deal for The Gowdie Letter, and you will also receive completely complimentary six-months access to The Gowdie Advisory.  

This would be worth $1,499 if you were to have six months access.

Today, you’ll receive six full months at no charge (apart from your $99 Gowdie Letter subscription).

You can see why my insistence on this has given the accounts department a headache.

To repeat: you get both services — for just $99

So, what is The Gowdie Advisory?

Picture The Gowdie Letter as a very good wealth exercise program.

But The Gowdie Advisory is your personal trainer. 

Where the focus of The Gowdie Letter is, in the words of reader CS, to ‘keep you abreast of where we are in the great scheme of the “everything bubble”’…

The Gowdie Advisory focuses squarely on WHAT YOU SHOULD DO.

As Advisory member DJP colourfully puts it:

If I knew back at the time of the GFC what I now know having followed The Gowdie Advisory I would not have lost $1.5 million following advice of a dumb-arse financial planner.

Here’s what that $99 entry into The Gowdie Advisory gets you…

REGULAR ADVICE SESSIONS

The idea for this service came from an increase of personal advice requests from Gowdie Letter subscribers…

‘What should I do with my…?’

‘Where’s the best...?’

‘How do I protect…?’

‘Will our savings…?’

‘My self-managed fund…’

I can’t give personal advice under our publishing licence. But these intimate, live question-and-answer sessions are as close to that as we can get.

Every second Tuesday of the month at 6:00pm, you’ll be invited to attend a Zoom meeting.

What we cover will be based on what YOU ask me.

The fuel of the Advisory is the common issues/problems/queries members...either emailed to me directly, explained to my Member Assistance Team on the phone, or left on the members-only website.

My team will then sort these submissions into what we call ‘Worry Silos’.

Specific, recurrent categories that are keeping you awake at night.

We cover questions like this one, sent to me by Gowdie Advisory member MP:

I think we could be seeing a permanent debasement of cash. And I’m worried, I’m quickly becoming quite poor (in relative terms) by sitting in cash. Thoughts?

Whatever problems you have, we’ll look for solutions.

  • If you have $75,000 invested in the share market for your children’s future, what should you do with that money to protect it from a big crash?
  • If you’re worried about where a fund manager has your retirement wealth sitting right now, what should you do?
  • I know control over my retirement savings could soon be more important than ever. But feel I don’t have the time or knowledge to self-manage. What should I do?
  • Is ‘shorting’ the market when it crashes a good idea or a can of worms?
  • You’re a commercial landlord with a tenant who’s consistently missing rent. You want to deal with it compassionately, given COVID, but what’s the best course of action?

These question-and-answer summits are the core of The Gowdie Advisory.

I’ll hit as many queries as I can (and drill down into specifics of each topic as much as possible without offering direct advice)…

CUSTOMISED, NO-AGENDA FINANCIAL PLANS

With more than 80% of financial planners having direct or indirect ties to institutions…your plan is tied to the Everything Bubble, whether you think it will end or not. 

This conflicted model was identified by the Banking Royal Commission as a major problem.

The Gowdie Advisory is a solution. 

Vern has a knack for providing information about the markets that others would prefer to ignore or suppress. My most common reaction after reading one of Vern's articles is “Wow! thanks Vern!” Anthony R

Over the next 3–6 months, I’m going to evolve for you a set of age- and circumstance-specific plans centred on seeing you through a turn in the cycle.

Again, these will be general in nature.  

But, unlike the mainstream planning industry, any adjustment to these plans will NOT be concluded with: ‘We have a product for that!

We don’t do that here.

The goal is to build bespoke but general plans that work for you and adapts to changing conditions.

As I keep saying, the decisions you make today could have serious repercussions in the years to come.

URGENT TOPIC DEEP-DIVES

This is not an advisory about ‘hot tips’.

It’s about solving big problems, as they arise for you. And thinking more deeply about issues of great importance to Australian wealth-builders.

No one else is giving you unbiased insight on these issues.

As KB from the Gold Coast puts it:

I spoke to my broker regarding the collateral debt obligations and the subprime to be told I was his biggest worrier and the total debt was ONLY400 billion US.

I held on and lost 50% of my super as a result.

Your advice is Spot On in my experience and as a result I will follow your advice and renew my subscription when necessary.

The problem is this…

Financial planners rely on economic and market information that comes primarily from two sources: investment institutions and research firms. Their solutions are offered to help themselves as much as you. And are largely predictable.

Institutional economists are no better. Just the media’s go-to people whenever market or economic commentary is required.

Most readers don’t realise the credible ‘expert’ being quoted actually works for an investment bank!

A big part of The Gowdie Advisory will be digging deep into issues, problems, and ideas these sources have a bias on…or just don’t go near. 

We’ll cover estate and family wealth challenges…how to adjust your retirement income calculus for a low-growth environment…

Managing your property investments through a downturn…ways to get income that aren’t lining a product provider’s pockets…dealing with encroaching taxation and government overreach… and more.

Plus, you get to...

TAP MY ‘BLACK BOOK’ OF REAL EXPERTS

I’ve built a core contact group of independent thinkers who, in my opinion, apply critical thinking to economic and investment matters. People who saw problems before, rather than after, the event. People who deal with real issues facing real investors…without the bias or baggage.

A regular part of the service is bringing their expertise straight to you.

Over the past year, for instance, Gowdie Advisory members have had Zoom sessions with:

  • Family wealth expert, counsellor of super-high net worth families, and author Dr Joanne Stern.
  • Head of the billion-dollar Agora empire and financial contrarian Bill Bonner.
  • Australian property guru Catherine Cashmore.
  • Behavioural economist Dr Juliette Tobias-Webb.
  • Ex-hedge funder, now head of distribution for the Perth Mint Jordan Eliseo.
  • Members get regular face time with some of the world’s most famous contrarian investors, including Harry Dent, Richard Duncan, and Dan Denning.
  • Occasionally I even bring in slightly left-field guests that tackle the mental toughness aspect of investing, such as former Paralympian, Annie Williams.

Success in life is not so much about what you know, but who you know. As well as the people above, some of the best contacts I’ve made are with my own members. Many are wealth-building experts in their own right — hedge fund managers, family governance experts, tax lawyers, entrepreneurs, commodities investors, and so on.

With that in mind, you’ll appreciate a final component to Gowdie Advisory membership…

MEMBER SUMMITS

These meetups have had the kibosh put on them by COVID.

But when restrictions are eased, you will be invited to evenings of great wine, classy surroundings, fine company, and a few special guests.

A chance for us to socialise, get to know each other, make connections, and share wealth ‘war stories’.

I appreciate how liberating it is to be able to talk to others who think like you.

Very helpful with my judgement on managing cashflow and savings for personal and business.

He provides a clear perspective on the exuberance of the markets and the risk that it may cause. I need my Gowdie fix each week to keep me level headed. Rodders

Seeing the world differently to others. Planning in advance. Taking a long-term view. Questioning the orthodox. Wanting a deeper understanding of matters.

It’ll be our chance to get out of the reeds of planning and personal finance...and examine over a glass or two more hefty ideas about growing and protecting wealth in this weird world we now find ourselves in. 

Bottom line is:

Whereas The Gowdie Letter will be vital theory…

The Gowdie Advisory will be
SOLUTION- and ACTION-focused

And — for as long as my publisher lets me — I’m offering you completely complimentary access for six months.

Take this $99 offer right now and you’ll get:

  • A one-year subscription to The Gowdie Letter. I believe we’re the only investment newsletter in Australia encouraging you to think deeply about your investment choices…and to question the official (institutional and government) lines…
  • My urgent report: ‘The Everything Bubble Cash-Out Strategy: How to Smartly Exit Code Red Investments Now’.
  • A digital copy of my book on protecting your wealth from a predatory financial industry, How Much Bull Can Investors Bear?
  • A free download of The End of Australia, my book that envisions the end of the Everything Bubble through an Australian lens.
  • A copy of ‘Two Ways to Make Money While Most Investors Lose Money’. Smart investments that could help you power your way out of the upcoming crisis (for speculators only).
  • PLUS: Complimentary, six-months access to my wealth consultancy and support group, The Gowdie Advisory (worth $1,499). An interactive community where we figure strategies out together…

All for just $99.

I hope you’ll agree that’s a pretty remarkable deal.

Especially considering that you have 30 days to examine it all and get a full refund if expectations aren’t met.

Should you decide to stay on to The Gowdie Letter after your first year, you’ll be automatically renewed at the full price of $149.

You WILL NOT be automatically renewed to The Gowdie Advisory.

Whether you wish to subscribe after your complimentary six months will be entirely up to you.   

Why on Earth are we GIVING away
six months access to The Gowdie Advisory?

We are entering what I think will be a very challenging period.

Perhaps — and I don’t think I’m being hyperbolic here — the biggest downcycle since the Great Depression.

The Gowdie Advisory has been expecting and planning for this for some time now. This is the very reason I set up this interactive service in the first place.

If the next six months is when the Code Reds start to blow, I want to make sure I can help as many like-minded people through it as I can.

This is your chance to see what we’re doing in The Gowdie Advisory — for six complimentary months.

No, you will NOT be sent a bill at the end of that six months.

Nor will you be automatically renewed.

It’s an entirely complimentary membership.

Six months should be ample time for you to experience every aspect of the Advisory. And see how we’re attacking the looming bust head-on.

If you wish to stay on as a full-fledged member after that, it will be completely up to you.

Simply contact me when your six complimentary months are up, and we’ll sort something out for you.

To summarise: Everything you see below you get for $99.

All you need to do is click this link:

Remember: That $99 is fully refundable inside 30 days. 

The stakes have never been higher. Not in your whole investing life.

Risk-taking — on the mistaken belief there is no risk — has pushed the whole investment world to its outer-limits.

The two major asset classes — property and shares — are now openly admitted as Code Reds by the mainstream press. Throw into this mix the arrival of a brand-new ‘asset’ called crypto…plus all kinds of other speculations…and I give you the ‘Everything Bubble’.

This has NEVER happened before.

But we know from history, everything — even seemingly invincible empires — has its breaking point.

Take this $99 offer now by clicking on the link below.

And let’s set about preparing for what must eventually happen…

Regards,

Vern Gowdie Signature

Vern Gowdie,
Editor, The Gowdie Letter
Editor, The Gowdie Advisory

CLICK HERE TO JOIN NOW

Still have questions? Here’s some answers:

What do I get for $99?

For just $99 today, you will receive 12 full months of The Gowdie Letter.

This is normally $149 a year.

AND…

You’ll receive six months access to The Gowdie Advisory…at no extra cost.

This would normally cost you $2,999 for a full one-year subscription.

And you’re getting it for $99.

That $99 also entitles you to:

  • ‘The Everything Bubble Cash-Out Strategy: How to Smartly Exit Code Red Investments Now’.
  • A digital copy of my book on protecting your wealth from a predatory financial industry, How Much Bull Can Investors Bear?
  • A free download of The End of Australia, my book that envisions the end of the Everything Bubble through an Australian lens.
  • A copy of ‘Two Ways to Make Money While Most Investors Lose Money’. Smart investments that could help you power your way out of the upcoming crisis (for speculators only).

This all comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee. If any of the above fails to meet your expectations, let us know, and we’ll refund your $99.

What is your background?

I ran a successful financial planning business out of Cairns for 26 years.

My job was to help Australians build and protect wealth. Boomers like me. Self-made businesspeople. Private investors; some high-net-worth.

I liked helping people make money. But my main priority — my number one rule — was not to LOSE anyone’s money.

My ‘common sense first’ philosophy wasn’t always popular with clients when stocks were going up.

But the way I saw it, if people wanted to take risks with their money chasing big returns, they could do that on their own.

I’m not sure what you think about that. But the strategy worked pretty well for me. In 1999, Personal Investor magazine named me one of Australia’s top 50 financial advisers.

In 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, my business was recognised by Independent Financial Adviser (IFA) magazine as one of Australia’s top five financial planning firms.

But along the way, I started to question the very industry that was giving me awards.

With commitments to meet, very few planners can afford to adopt a contrarian advice model.

This creates a conflict...do you stop clients from self-harm (and, in doing so, harm your income-earning capacity), or do you go along to get along?

There were several inherent conflicts of interest in the financial advice business model...and the major conflict was that more than 80% of financial planners had direct or indirect ties to institutions. This conflicted model was identified by the Banking Royal Commission as a major problem.

It was during the post-2000 ‘tech wreck’ downturn that I began questioning the largely unquestioned beliefs underpinning the investment industry. This was the second major downturn I’d experienced; I felt there had to be a better way to protect clients and run a viable business. Looking back, the idea was admirable, but, in reality, it was far harder to implement.

In the end, I sold out of my business before the GFC because I saw what was coming. I felt — and still feel — that the financial planning business is not built with the best interests of clients in mind.

It’s not that these are stupid, selfish, or even greedy people.

It’s just how the whole thing is set up.

The Gowdie Letter and The Gowdie Advisory are my attempts at a second option.

An antidote to the ‘financial industrial complex’.

Personal and general advice: what’s the difference?

Our Australian Financial Services (AFS) licence only permits me to offer general advice in both The Gowdie Letter and The Gowdie Advisory.

This is an important distinction, particularly with The Gowdie Advisory.

Because — as you’ll soon see during your complimentary six months of this service — the whole point is to address your issues directly in an interactive way.

That means if I stray into offering you advice specific to your personal situation — even if I do it accidentally — we risk being in breach of our licence. So, we don’t want to be doing that!

So what is general advice?

It is advice that I give that DOESN’T take into account YOUR (meaning you, specifically) objectives, financial situation, and needs.

Meaning, you should consider every bit of advice you get from The Gowdie Advisory carefully and compare it to your own situation before you think about acting on it.

You should consider if it’s appropriate for you and your financial situation.

And, where applicable, you should even consider a second opinion (one that you TRUST).

It’s really pretty simple. And doesn’t actually limit the service in a significant way.

Examples...

‘I know you’re not bullish on gold. But would you say gold ETFs will be a good investment when the market looks like it’s nearing a bottom?’

TICK! Any answer to that would be advice of a general nature.

‘I am 70 years old and have just over a million dollars in cash. I’m about to put at least a third of it into ASX:GOLD at $2.22 a share. My wife thinks I’m stupid. What do you think?’

CROSS! Now, of course, I can still be careful to answer this question in a general nature. But this is ground where we will have to be very cautious. It’s very hard to answer the question above without taking into account your specific situation.

In summary: We will be an intimate group where all issues are addressed, but all advice must still be general in nature.

Could you be wrong about the end of the Everything Bubble?

History — and common sense — would say ‘no’.

Current market conditions appear to have all the characteristics of the end of a cycle. This is a market best characterised as one of very high risk offering very low to negative returns.

But it’s no secret that central bankers have managed to keep this cycle going well beyond any historical precedent.

They go to bed each night thinking…

‘We and we alone will dictate what the cash rate should be.’

‘We and we alone will decide for how long the printing presses should run to provide backdoor financing to a government that lacks the discipline to exercise budgetary restraint.’

‘We and we alone will dictate the pricing mechanism of asset markets.’

Here in the real world, we know all too well their distorted and irresponsible policies have blown bubble after bubble after bubble.

In this new world, any crisis that would end a normal cycle is just a ‘blip’.

Because Jerome Powell & Co will come to the rescue and make everyone’s dollar whole again.

So I say very clearly and directly: We could well see higher prices yet before the end titles roll on this Everything Bubble.

If that happens, then that’ll only make things worse.

Again, I ask you — do you think this goes on forever?

Central banks have created a grotesque MONSTER, one that’s gone way beyond their control.

They’ve lost control.

But that doesn’t mean you have to as well...

As the founder of Vanguard Investments, John C Bogle, said: ‘Reversion to the mean is the iron rule of the financial markets.

To me, investors are playing a game of Russian Roulette. My bet is that something will happen central banks can’t fix with more printed money.

You should be preparing for this eventuality now.

If the uncertainty you’ve seen creep into stock markets in recent months is an indication that this process has already started…you’ll be glad you did…

Am I obligated to pay a subscription to The Gowdie Advisory after my complimentary six months is up?

Absolutely, categorically not.

It is general practice at Fat Tail Investment Research that you’re automatically renewed (unless you advise otherwise) when your subscription is up.

That will NOT be the case with your complimentary six months access to The Gowdie Advisory.

This is simply a chance for you to avail yourself of all the interactive elements of this service over what I see as a crucial six-month period in the markets.

You will be receiving six months (worth $1,499) at no extra charge.

All you need to do is join The Gowdie Letter for the reduced price of $99.

You WILL be automatically renewed to The Gowdie Letter when your 12 months is up at the official price of $149. We’ll send you an email before that happens, though.

But that won’t happen with The Gowdie Advisory.

If, at the end of your complimentary six months, you love the service and wish to continue, simply contact me or my Member Services team. We’ll do you a special discounted deal so you can stay onboard.

But that decision will be entirely up to you.

This is a one-time-only chance to try The Gowdie Advisory for half a year without paying a cent in membership dues.

Are all those amazing testimonials real?

There’s a lot of them, I know!

When Danielle from our Member Services team sent me the results of the latest survey of my subscribers, I was humbled and taken aback.

Every testimonial you’ve read in this invitation is 100% real, with permission to use from each subscriber.

We actually had to leave dozens out for space reasons!

CLICK HERE TO JOIN NOW

Here are some more words from my subscribers that are not included above:

I am with Vern for the long haul and his advice on what areas to invest in when “the big crash” happens suddenly or a gradual long-game one.

– Ian B

I started with the “GOWDIE LETTER” some years back, and immediately became addicted. Here was a man I could connect with, his views and values on life ran parallel with mine, the common sense approach with his reasoning in all matters, not just financial, was like a breath of fresh air when compared to the others I was subscribed to. Read the books, great read every one.

– RKD

Logical and reliable viewpoints. Cautious but accurate. Information I can rely on.

– Garth

I look forward to each Letter by Vern as he discusses a wide range of topics about Investment Options and Investment in general; but without the Hype!! And, without a push to sell or promote a financial product.

– Lester

I love Vern’s knowledge of history re finance and how he weaves that into what is happening today. His use of data to draw a picture of current day issues is masterful and makes sense to me.

– Bryan Stevenson

While almost everyone else has gone over to the “equities and/or crypto will rise forever” bandwagon, like Vern I believe that reason and sanity will prevail and the real world will soon enough assert itself in a crash of Biblical proportions.

– Julian E Cabarrus

Vern’s letters have been insightful and helpful in setting my financial directions in navigating through these uncertain financial times.

– Lou Pecora

The Voice of Reason to counter FOMO anxiety. Great newsletter.

– Bernard Fischer

I am taking notice of his warnings about the level of the markets but it seems that few others are at present.

– John P

I am a firm believer, and follower, of his clear, concise and “yep, that makes sense to me” approach to his “Letter”. While I also subscribe to others of The Fat Tail Crew, it is Vern’s viewpoint/commentary that I tend to take most notice of.

I value his realistic viewpoints of what, and how, things are happening in both Australia and across the glove. I especially appreciate how he involves family in his commentary.’ 

– Wayne, QLD

He is always right on the money and tells it how it is and not how the media and most politicians would have us believe. He does make me extremely cautious when investing, which I need.

– Dave Allen

Vern digs deep with analysis and charts that he then interprets, to present his view on the preservation of wealth. I have been reading Vern’s work for years. I’ve just retired and can’t afford losses on my vested income. Vern’s view is refreshing and obviously hard for him to “hold the line” in his justified position, when the world of investors is in a “tearing” bull market, with no mainstream rational view on what our unfolding economic future foretells — that standing on the edge of a precipice. I value his continued stance.

– Ollie

Reading Vern’s letters all the time, I am learning, learning, and learning more each time.

– Donald, South Melbourne

Vern presents a knowledgeable newsletter, well researched with quoted sources, it seriously challenges the premise that the world economy can continue to survive on ever increasing amounts of printed money.

– GP

I just love the depth of understanding, research, common sense, deep thinking, ethical underpinning and wisdom exhibited by Vern.

– Erik Metanomski

I think Vern’s assessments of the market are spot on and agree with his view on where we are headed.

– PH

Vern’s view of the market has provided me with great insight into the World`s financial system; including cryptos. I think he spreads confidence among those who want to pay attention to his warnings.

– Chris

Vern always provides fantastic independent thought and takes a rational view of an irrational world. I love hearing his insights and ideas on what we are seeing around us every day from a markets perspective.

– CW

I appreciate the honesty that Vern brings to his understanding on investing and the markets.

– IJ

Vern’s insights on investing are very much appreciated in a world of otherwise blindless optimism. It’s always good to have a wide range of theories and opinions when investing for the future and I value The Gowdie Letter and use it to formulate my investment strategy.

– Justin Simpson

I’m grateful to Vern for keeping me on track. Many times, against my inner thoughts, I have wanted to go into the market. Vern’s letter has always helped me stay on my course.

– Steve A

I completely trust Vern. Every newsletter is accurately written, based on his impartial research. In a world filled with fake/biased news, Vern’s newsletter stands out.

– Mike M

While there is no certainty with investing, Vern provides the next best thing as he expertly presents likely scenarios backed by specific factual arguments and his own experience.

– Henry

This has helped us protect our cash and invest with wisdom only gained by years and years of knowledge.

– R Fishwick

I love your letter, your thinking and smarts.

– Wally B, Perth

I find Vern’s analysis of current financial conditions extremely helpful in developing a strategy for future investment paths. I agree with a lot of Vern’s views and it is helpful to have this support when everywhere else things are going on blindly, it helps to suppress FOMO.

– David

His advice have given me great insights and a very measured response to trading. Information backed up by the supportive charts demonstrates the massive play by Govts and elites etc....which is bringing critical times and shouting out the inevitable outcome. I had avoided losses back in January 2020 as had exited all trades based on Vern’s evidence.

– Sally

I am too old to lose what I have, because don’t have the years to recover the loss. The sensible approach of Vern Gowdie is a very appreciated safer haven in contrast to the outside noise and panic of other publications.

– MK

Excellent, he is wheat amongst the chaff.

– PB

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