‘Now even the investment newsletter industry has fallen for the go-go, buy-the-dip, prices-only-go-up bubble credo.
‘Like other parts of the financial industry, it tells customers what they want to hear. But at least it is independent of Wall Street…with no incentive to sell customers overpriced securities.’
My name is Dan Denning.
As a newsletter man myself, it pains me to read the comment above.
Especially as it comes from the Godfather of Financial Newsletters, Bill Bonner.
Bill is a friend, a mentor and a co-editor of our own…ahem…newsletter, The Bonner-Denning Letter.
Bill sent me to Australia back in 2005 to start its first major contrarian financial newsletter publisher: Fat Tail Investment Research.
Back then we were called Port Phillip Publishing. It was just a few of us — writing from an old hat factory off Brighton Road.
Our entire readership could literally fit into a single room. And they did. In the first years we invited them all to an annual event called the Doomer’s Ball. We held the first one in a room above a wine bar called Café Presse. There were less than two dozen readers — each a bit taken aback to find there were others who thought the same way. Bill flew down from wherever in the world he was to be guest speaker.
Those were the days.
Today — for better or worse — if we wanted to hold a face-to-face event with all our readers, we’d have to hire the MCG.
Since I handed over reigns as Publisher, Fat Tail Investment Research has grown from one mischievous, contrarian and free e-letter…into a mainstream-adjacent (at least in terms of size) financial media player.
Are we still true to our roots, though?
Subscriber Diana seems to think so:
‘This type of rational thinking appears to be in shorter and shorter supply…and I would be much more concerned about my financial future without the regular input of these guys.’
Here’s a tricky question, however…
Is the company I started 15 years ago also falling for the ‘go-go, buy-the-dip, prices-only-go-up bubble credo’ Bill laments?
Are we getting as bad as the very agenda-compromised bunch we strive to hold to account?
Jeez. I certainly hope not.
You now live in an age of two simultaneous repressions.
Financial repression. When governments rig markets to keep official interest rates below the rate of inflation…asset prices soar far higher than logic says they should…and savers and anyone on a fixed income gets hammered.
And societal repression. Where governments openly treat their citizens like inmates…lickspittles in media and academia back them up…health officials shut down the economy and confine you to quarters indefinitely with one press conference…and normal law and liberties are on permanent hiatus…
I assume that’s what got you to the webpage you’re reading now.
But to hear Bill Bonner admit the global newsletter industry is also compromised…well, that’s hard to take. After all, his company’s own newsletters now reach four million people around the globe.
It’s like the Pope announcing he’s not so sure about the whole ‘objective existence of God’ thing.
But Bill is doing what he does best: talking honestly.
And what he’s talking about is a pernicious ‘capturing’ of the whole world by bad ideas and fake money.
As the saying goes, a country gets the leaders it deserves. Perhaps — in this strangest of times — investors get the financial newsletters they deserve, too?
So… where do you turn for wise counsel?
I’ve been away from Australia and my Australian friends and readers for some time now. But, today…
It’s an idea I believe could benefit you greatly in these dark times. If you understand it, and apply it in the right way.
I learned this ‘elegant idea’ directly from Bill Bonner himself.
I’m certain that no matter what sources you’re getting your insights from — mainstream or independent — you won’t have heard this idea. (At least, not the way Bill reveals it.)
It’s not a stock or crypto tip. It’s not a trade. Or even Bill’s famous ‘Trade of the Decade’ (although we’ll share that with you, too). It’s not ‘the next big thing’. It’s not even a specific prediction, as such.
If I’m right, and Bill is right, what you’re about to read is far more valuable than any of those things.
We now have the artificial and deliberate creation of two things…
A permanent bull market.
And a permanent emergency.
Both of the above are designed to never end.
But there is an endgame in some form or other waiting for us.
Few people have done much careful thinking about it.
Let me explain…
One of them is that, over the past 23 years, I’ve been fortunate to work alongside some brilliant (if rather eccentric) people…
And they all had one thing in common: a unique way of seeing the world — which made them hugely successful.
I’ve worked with:
Rick Rule, the self-made billionaire resource investor.
Lord William Rees-Mogg, head of the BBC and a member of the House of Lords.
Doug Casey, the famous ‘International Man’ and author of several financial bestsellers.
I’ve had the pleasure of publishing many of Fat Tail Investment Research’s best analysts and traders, including Greg Canavan, Jim Rickards, Vern Gowdie, Harry Dent and Murray Dawes.
And I’ve worked closely with financial wizards like Jim Grant, Marc Faber, James Dale Davidson, Steve Sjuggerud, Jeff Clark, Dan Ferris, Chris Mayer, Alex Green…and so many others…
Once, I even met Alan Greenspan at a private briefing.
But I declined to take a picture with him on principle. (He’s a very nice man, but the group he led did incalculable damage to the global economy.)
But it’s not the people I met that changed my life the most.
In fact, if you asked me to name the number one thing that’s helped me live a life beyond my wildest dreams…
I would tell you it’s a simple idea I learned from Bill Bonner.
Bill didn’t set out to become a rich man.
And to this day, he doesn’t own a private jet…or a fancy sports car.
Instead, he still drives a 10-year-old Ford F-150 pick-up. More often than not, he’s happy to ride an old pack horse around.
And he’d rather put a new roof on his house, with his own hands — or scrape and paint shutters — than schmooze with the world’s richest and most connected investors…
Yet, somehow, he’s more successful and wealthier than most people I’ve ever met.
And the key to his success is something very few people are willing or able to do:
Connecting the dots about what’s really happening behind the scenes in the world of finance, politics and investing.
That’s how Bill and his team of researchers, writers, and analysts correctly predicted every major geopolitical event since the 1980s, like:
Being able to see big events like these coming — in advance of the mainstream — gives you choices.
So, what choices do you have now?
Well, you have a binary outcome in a world of financial repression. You can go full ‘risk-on’ and join the crowd…buying the most aggressive growth stocks and momentum plays. As long as rates stay low and stocks keep going up, you’ll learn to love it.
Or you can forego the possible gains in momentum plays…and try not to lose your money in the inevitable crash.
Whatever you choose, the most important thing is that it’s a fully informed decision.
And that’s where Bill Bonner’s ‘elegant idea’ comes in…
Never before have we seen such an assault on common sense…capitalism… and the very principles of civilisation itself.
And nowhere is this more evident than in my ‘second home’ on the other side of the world…
I fell in love with Australia very soon into my 10-year stint as a publisher there.
The people are the best in the world. And the beer is always cold.
But the main reason I decided to become a citizen is it’s a country based on egalitarian principles I cherish:
The protection of private property, economic freedom, free trade, limited role of government, free speech, a free press, religious freedom…and the primacy of the individual to act in their own best interests and take personal responsibility for their actions.
Today, though…like in several other places in the Western world…those principles are threatened like never before.
Australia’s current political leaders, at the state and national levels, have complete contempt for individual liberty and the Rule of Law.
They’ve behaved shamefully, ignorantly, or with wilful destruction of the kind of private rights and liberties that characterise a free society.
And it’s only getting worse…
Clearly, Australia is not alone here.
This is a worldwide problem — Australia’s just the most acute current example.
No one ever said navigating a global pandemic was going to be easy.
But to be worse off, closing in on two years into it, with the only solution being the failed route of MORE lockdowns and less liberty…?
Well, that’s not ideal.
So, what do YOU do in the face of all this?
What choices should you make when there is an ‘everything bubble’ in almost every asset market?
And when you’re living in a world where lockdowns are here to stay, travel is restricted, vaccine passports are compulsory and freedoms are stamped underfoot?
Compared to markets past, stocks are overvalued by almost every metric.
Add to that Aussie home prices, cryptos, meme stocks, SPACs, fine art, collectibles. You’ve seen the headlines. You get the picture.
Central bankers now have unquestioned power over markets and economies — using trillions in newly-minted dollars and zero interest rates.
As my friend Greg Canavan puts it…
‘When central banks can corrupt the value of money, and do so relentlessly without any meaningful pushback, the corruption seeps into all parts of society.
‘What we’re seeing now is a form of corruption at the highest levels.
‘EVERYONE has sold out.
‘EVERYONE has bowed down to the (depreciating) dollar.’
But that’s the territory of financial newsletters.
And financial newsletters…even the good ones, who haven’t gone to the ‘dark side’…only cover a tiny part of a much bigger picture.
Which is unfortunate.
Your single best defence against a chaotic and threatening world is to have financial freedom. That’s not just a feel-good term. It means having enough money that you can keep you and your family safe and well as things beyond your control affect others.
But it is unlikely the odd decent stock tip will afford you this freedom. (Unless it’s a REALLY good stock tip…)
Both Bill and I believe a good grasp of the bigger picture is the one true thing that can save you financially in the years to come.
Part of that big picture is understanding how the ‘everything bubble’ and the global COVID response are intertwined.
Is COVID causing a mass psychotic breakdown in previously sane, rational people? Has it become (or was it always) a massive psychological operation in manipulating people into compliance through fear?
But it looks that way to me with each passing day.
Certainly, from correspondence, it seems a growing number of my friends in Australia agree. And believe Australia has gone down the rabbit hole and straight into dystopian hell as it overreacts to COVID cases.
Take this comment from South Australian Member of Parliament Frank Pangallo…
‘While people might still have a choice whether or not to get vaccinated, what they can do in the community will need to be controlled and restricted.’
Have a read of that bolded part again.
Controlled and restricted…based on your private medical choice.
Would-be tyrants at all levels of government and in the bureaucracy see this as a chance to press their advantage. And it’s probably here to stay.
Which brings me to the reason why I’ve reached out to you today…
Until now, no one…not a single politician…or business leader…or thinker that I know of has been able to explain where this is all leading…
And most importantly…how you should react to what’s unfolding in a smart (but not hysterical) manner…
The worldwide lockdown kept Bill at his ranch in northern Argentina for much of 2020. But it didn't slow him down one bit...
Fat Tail Investment Research is publishing a very special book he’s written.
It will be his last.
It’s called A Modest Theory of Civilization: Win-Win or Lose.
It’s the final distillation of an extraordinary, 40-plus-year career.
And we’re making an eBook edition available for any subscriber who wishes to read it. I’ll show you how to download it shortly.
Right now, the most important way to secure your financial freedom is to not have your money destroyed by ‘the big one’ in financial markets. It’s tempting to think that the US Federal Reserve won’t let global stocks crash…
But people have thought that before. And it happened anyway…and took years to recover.
Losing 50% of your retirement nest egg just as you’re about to retire is a financial disaster that you will not have time to recover from.
Win-Win or Lose…and a specific core element of it, which we’ll get to in a second…looks at ways you could prevent that from happening.
But there’s something else Bill Bonner’s latest (and last) book will make very clear to you…
One thing that’s also clear is the mainstream media is now in lock step with government COVID narratives.
Why is that?
Because the big pandemic is also big business. Think of all the clicks and advertising dollars that are earned by Australia’s media organs from spreading the government’s message. You’re likely to get a smaller piece of the pie if you’re running with a contrary narrative.
A Modest Theory of Civilization: Win-Win or Lose…as the title suggests…is not just about protecting yourself from the most overvalued bubble in history.
It’s about helping you avoid groupthink in an upside-down world.
The COVID pandemic has accelerated restrictions on individual liberty and economic freedom all over the world. Some of this may have been necessary at the beginning as a short-term precaution. But the actions taken by governments in the last 18 months pose a long-term threat to civil liberties and democratic accountability, as well as entrepreneurship and small business.
Unless ‘emergency’ powers are revoked and the Rule of Law is vigorously defended, Western countries risk a permanent shift toward more authoritarian limits on small businesses and civil liberties.
Australia and the United States will become more like China every single day.
The time is now for defenders of individual liberty and entrepreneurial freedom to ensure that these temporary infringements do not become permanent.
As well as finding ideas on protecting your wealth…this is another big reason you need to read Bill Bonner’s final book, Win-Win or Lose now…
Bill is one of only a few people — or perhaps even the only person on the planet — to truly see and understand these massive changes rippling through society.
And I’m not the only one who thinks so…
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at NYU and author of The Black Swan and Antifragile, has called his writing:
‘A must, must, must read exposition of the side effect of government […] deep, illustrative, witty, pleasant to read.’
And renowned investor Dr Marc Faber agrees:
‘I am seldom jealous of anybody, but I truly envy Bill Bonner's writing and intellectual skills. I read his notes every day because of his perfect prose and his deep insights into economics, and investment markets.’
You may not have heard of Win-Win or Lose, because Bill has not made a big fuss about it.
He refused to do a publicity tour to sell the book…or appear on TV or radio…or even to turn the book over to a major book publisher for mass distribution (even though he’s previously written two books that made the New York Times bestseller lists).
The entire first print run of this book sold out — fast.
And Bill’s publisher has no plans to order another printing. You see…
Bill’s latest work was never destined to be a ‘bestseller’.
It’s far too controversial and challenging for the average ‘zombie’ to accept.
And Bill’s message, well, it won’t go over well with the Twitter mob.
It’s best suited for people like you and me...with a real interest in people who are curious about unravelling the deepest and most pressing questions of our time.
That’s why I reached out to you today.
We’ve come up with a way for you to…
Get an electronic copy of Win-Win or Lose delivered to your inbox — immediately…
Including a never-before-published ‘Missing Chapter’… (more on that shortly)…
And, finally, to participate in a special project Bill and I have been working on since early 2017.
As a Fat Tail Investment Research subscriber, I know you’ll appreciate this new book…
Fascinating doctoral theses are going to be written in the future on the two central topics of our age.
How the elites managed to wangle an ‘everything bubble’ — at the expense of everyone else — and keep it going for so long.
And how politicians and public health experts managed to take whole nations hostage — with the help of a complicit media.
In Win-Win or Lose, Bill Bonner makes his best effort to explain the seemingly unexplainable…while providing you with actionable ideas along the way…
You already know the bent financial rules we now must live by.
You ‘rescue’ the stock market…prices go higher…weak businesses are protected…bad investments go uncorrected…the rich get richer…the rest get restless…and the system becomes more vulnerable.
Then, something always happens that the insiders can’t control.
In financial markets, you never know where the torpedo is going to come from.
If it’s not war or natural disaster, it’s usually a ‘credit event’ like Lehman Brothers. It can be a big, systemically important firm that finds itself on the losing end of a major bet. All its counterparties are then exposed, and you get the dreaded contagion.
Or it can be some hedge fund that nobody ever heard of (like Long-Term Capital Management in 1998). Using borrowed money, very smart people suddenly find themselves on the wrong end of a trade. The end that results in bankruptcy and the liquidation of the fund, and more chaos in the markets than anyone thought possible.
Maybe those things ARE impossible now that central banks are in charge all the time.
Maybe rising stock prices have replaced job and wage growth as the number one priority for central planners to keep the population pacified.
If stocks were to crash, imagine how many more people might be out in the street, looking for answers and asking for help.
As you’ll see in Win-Win or Lose, we are closer to this than many people think.
The French aristocracy had no idea what was coming in 1787. But when the timeline of history swerves in an unexpected way, watch out.
Years ago, I went to work for Bill after graduating from St. John’s College with a liberal arts degree.
I had zero financial training…little idea how markets even worked…and I knew almost nothing about investing.
And Bill’s ideas on financial success and personal freedom were different from anything else I had heard — anywhere.
And that’s when my whole life changed.
I’m hoping that reading this book — at this particular time in history — might change your life in some small way too.
Bill has somehow put together a history book, a psychology book, a set of investment predictions, a business book, a self-help book and a novel of the future — all in one.
When Bill entered the planning stages of A Modest Theory of Civilization: Win-Win or Lose he reached out to me.
It was going to be his last, and definitive, work.
But he needed some serious time to devote to it.
Bill certainly didn’t want to put his monthly advisory, The Bill Bonner Letter, on hiatus.
So he reached out and asked if I would help.
And that’s how The Bonner-Denning Letter was born.
Needless to say, it’s an honour to co-author Bill’s flagship publication. And an even bigger responsibility.
And because The Bonner-Denning Letter is such a vital companion to Bill’s latest book, we’ve decided to pair them up together for Fat Tail Investment Research subscribers.
The official subscription price of The Bonner-Denning Letter is $149 per year.
If you accept this invitation today, you can get your first 12 months for just $69.
If you’re quick with maths, you’ll notice that’s less than half price.
And you’ll receive an eBook copy of A Modest Theory of Civilization: Win-Win or Lose with our compliments.
A subscription to The Bonner-Denning Letter for under half price.
And instant access to Bill’s powerful, and final, book.
Meaning you could read the book cover-to-cover…and scour the Letter’s previous issue archives all you like…and still get a refund of the joining fee in the first 30 days if you so desire.
Feel free to do that if you find, after a serious review, that these ideas and themes are a bit heavy for you.
We’ll be the first to admit…both Bill and I can be a little, shall we say, polarising.
But if you’re concerned about some of the developments we’ve talked about today…
And if you believe there are times to worry about the return on your investment money…but there are other times when it is best to worry about the return of your investment money…
Then I implore you to read Bill’s book. And try our unconventional newsletter.
If we hear from you today, there’s one additional resource you’ll receive…
Bill first put pen to page on Win-Win or Lose well before a strange new virus first appeared in Wuhan, China.
Because of that, Bill agreed to pen a crucial final chapter.
This missing chapter brings Bill’s crucial message into the present day…and focuses squarely on the future.
What happens next?
And what should you be doing about it?
With regards to the first question, Win-Win or Lose’s ‘Missing Chapter’ looks at:
*** Where next for civilisation, science and your freedom? No matter what your views on lockdowns or climate change are, one thing is certain — ‘science’ is remarkably useful to those who rule right now. Today, ‘the science’ seeks to anoint the elite with the same sort of unquestioned power once reserved for high priests. Bill’s ‘Missing Chapter’ explores what that means going forward.
*** Where next for the parasitic elite? How much more wealth and power can they accrue over the next decade? And at what cost to you?
*** Where next for the virus? Statistically, the odds of dying of COVID are low if you’re under the age of 44. Would it be better to let the disease pass through the ranks of those unlikely to be harmed by it, thereby creating a natural immunity? Rather than to insist that everyone — young and old, at risk or not — pay the costs we’re all paying now? Nobody knows. There are arguments on both sides. But only one argument is public policy in Australia right now…
*** Where next for geopolitics? Another milestone was passed this year. On 31 August, all US troops were scheduled for removal from Afghanistan…after 20 years of warfare. China and Russia watch on, with interest. What goes around comes around. And going round now is a growing indifference and hostility to US bullying. What will this mean for Australia and the world?
And to the second question…what should you be doing?
This is a reason on its own to read Win-Win or Lose as soon as you can.
Its ‘Missing Chapter’ is where you’ll find practical things you can do now.
Some of these are relatively straightforward.
Like looking for investments that are relatively safe — companies that can increase prices readily, without needing a lot of new capital themselves.
And a certain type of real estate that Bill’s personally investing in that he believes could keep offering decent returns…even during a global asset bust.
Bill also shows you some areas you could potentially make great returns by being ‘short’ when the proverbial you-know-what hits the fan.
It’s worth pointing out you should seek out good, professional advice before deciding to act on any of Bill’s ideas in the ‘Missing Chapter’.
Provided you TRUST them implicitly. And keep an eye on their fees…
But if there’s only one key idea you take away from Win-Win or Lose, it should be Bill’s new ‘Trade of the Decade’.
This is a concept Bill first developed back in 1999. That with these long-term trends that take years to develop, if you get the general direction right then there could be simple trades that, over the course of 10 years, would also be right.
It’s not rocket science.
But over the years, Bill’s predictions have seemed to pay off.
Back in 2000, Bill’s first ‘Trade of the Decade’ was long gold/short the US dollar. As you’ll know, that trade would have worked very well in the 2000s.
Bill’s 2010s ‘Trade of the Decade’ was Japanese stocks, which had been down for decades.
That worked too.
The Nikkei started 2010 at around 10,000 and ended 2019 at nearly 24,000.
But overall, over that 10-year period, that ‘Trade of the Decade’ was successful.
So, what is Bill’s current ‘Trade of the Decade’? You’ll find out that too in the ‘Missing Chapter’ of A Modest Theory of Civilization: Win-Win or Lose.
The bottom line is…
While the bulk of your money — and your time — should be focused on protecting what you have, an inflationary crisis is also a good time to make money.
The book…and our newsletter…are squarely aimed at giving you ideas to help you do exactly that.
You can get both…right now…for a tiny $69.
With that $69 fully refundable within 30 days if you’re not fully satisfied.
Simply click the ‘Claim My Book Now’ button below to get started.Claim My Book Now
Co-Author, The Bonner-Denning Letter