BIG WEDNESDAY

Dear Reader,

Half a century on, ageing surfers still regret not being in the water on ‘Big Wednesday’.

You might have seen the American surf film by the same name. It follows a group of buddies as they take to the waves during the Great Swell of ’74.

That Great Swell swept the world.

‘I was down at Werri Beach’, recalls one guy who was there on the RealSurf blog. ‘I have never been so sh*t scared. Outside was the biggest I had ever seen — I say 30 ft but probably on 20-25 ft.’

I am convinced the Aussie share market is fast-approaching its own ‘Big Wednesday’.

I’ve technical data showing we could be weeks away from a once-in-a-generation tidal surge that will swamp most investors...

…but make the few who ride this wave more gains than they’ve seen in the last 20 years combined.

To understand this prediction, you first need to see one very special chart.

The secret buried in this chart forms the core of my trading strategy.

‘Follow this strategy to the letter’, says one of my members, Darren S, ‘and you can’t go wrong.’

For the last five years, we’ve navigated a very tricky market for 25% annualised average gains.

That’s 25% portfolio growth. On average. Year on year.

The kind of growth rate that compounds a $100,000 portfolio…into over $900,000 in 10 years (more on how we track this later).

As another of my followers, Rob Alder, FCPA says:

‘After two years…I’m double the return I was with other larger brokers. Running my own SMSF as a qualified accountant, his recommendations have always been absolutely spot-on…’

But everything we’ve been doing for the last five years could be leading to this historic moment in 2025.

If I’m right about this, you could be looking back at a few torrid weeks of 2025 in the same misty-eyed way lucky surfers reminisce about 1974.

‘I remember the swell like it was yesterday’, writes another. ‘If you didn’t catch these swells it is impossible to imagine what they were like.’

Why am I convinced a similar event is about to take place on the ASX?

And what stocks should you buy to surf it?

To understand you need to look at this chart...

It shows the price action of the S&P ASX 200 over the last 10 years.

It’s superimposed over the Victorian coastline, between the towns of Anglesea and Torquay.

The chart crosses Bells Beach at 7,600. I put that there for a reason. It’s not a coincidence. I’ll show you why in a moment.

Trading the share market over the last 10 years has been a lot like surfing. You paddle out into the middle of the ocean (the market), and then you wait. A few swells pass you by. You have to decide which ones to catch.

Experience tells you a lot.

Being in the right place at the right time helps too.

The purpose of this report is to put YOU in the right place at the right time when something I call ‘Big Wednesday’ happens in the share market.

What follows is a series of trading ideas designed to
help you TAKE ADVANTAGE
of this move

But first, how do I know a big break in the market is coming?

Look at Bells Beach, pictured in the chart above.

It’s world famous for its point break.

A point break is just one kind of surf.

In this case, it’s the current from the Southern Ocean hitting a point of land that juts out in the water. But the quality of surf is determined by a lot of things.

Underwater topography, for instance, matters a lot. As the waves rush into the coastline, the seabed underneath determines how big and burly the waves will be. Coral reefs or other underwater features can make the waves even steeper. They can also make wipeouts more dangerous.

Bells Beach is famous for some of the best right-breaking peaks in the world.

But each year hundreds of surfers are rescued from the waves — mostly tourists.

However, I’m not writing to you today to give you a lesson on surfing history.

I’m writing to show you that there’s an unseen topography to the price action of the stock market. This unseen topography determines price action in the same way that the topography of the sea floor determines how a wave breaks.

Here's the important part:

My technical analysis tells me that the 7,600 point level on the ASX 200 could be THE decisive turning point in 2025. In fact, it could be the biggest market turning point since 1987.

And we’re just a few percentage points away from it.

In fact, we may even be there or below by the time you read this.

Falling below 7,600 could set off a chain reaction. One that could take the index down to 7,000…and then even lower.

That sounds scary, but stick with me.

History shows those who predict these moves…and make the right plan in advance…can win out spectacularly in the end.

And that’s what this urgent whitepaper is about.

We’re looking at a break from that level in the chart above…7,600…down to or below 7,000.

If that happens, it could
be the
best share-buying
opportunity of this century

And I’m going to show you WHAT I think you should be buying, if this plays out as my indicators are showing.

You see, that bottom 7,000 level is what I call ‘the Point of Control’.

In my own theory of price action, this point is critical to future price movements.

Catching the trading action around this point correctly in the coming weeks could be the best move you ever make as a share investor.

I can tell you that with complete confidence because when you look at the market in chart form over the long term, you can see it has been following a strict script for 15 years now.

If you look at recent movements…overlapped with the fear created by President Trump’s tariffs…it’s obvious we are close to a major move down in the share market.

A move that will shock people with its viciousness.

I’m talking about a 600-1,000 point fall in the ASX happening over a few days or weeks.

A massive crash.

But as I’ll show you later, this fall will set up a huge buying opportunity.

I’m going to share with you five SPECIFIC buys to consider making at key price levels. But first, take a look at this.

This is a chart of the ASX for the last five years…

Notice that tipping point outlined in the Bells Beach chart earlier.

7,600.

It’s part of the ‘unseen topography’ of the current market. The underlying pattern — a pattern most traders don’t see — that determines how the wider market moves.

This shows we’re getting VERY near that 7,600 tipping point.

If the ASX 200 falls below that 7,600 level…then you could see a panic-sell to the Point of Control of 7,000.  

And then the real selloff begins…

All of a sudden, a year’s worth of buying will be out of the money in a flash.

I’ve seen it before over three decades of trading. And I’ve taken advantage of it many times, as I’ll show you soon.

What happens is those buyers will dump their positions, thus forcing prices down.

The S&P/ASX 200 was stuck in a range from 2021 to 2024, and a fall below 7,600 will mean prices are heading back into that range once again.

That is why I can confidently predict that the S&P/ASX 200 will fall to the midpoint…the point of control of the range at 7,000…and possibly lower.

And that, reader, will be
the start of
what I call
the ASX’s ‘Big Wednesday’

NOT because I think it’s going to happen on a Wednesday, although it might.

The point is...

Just like the ‘Great Swell of ’74’, we’re approaching a significant market event.

Something you see only every 30 or 40 years in the markets.

Look, you can see things don’t look good in the world economy right now…

• The mainstream’s ‘Trump bump’ talking point is now a ‘Trump recession’. Even Trump himself doesn’t rule out a US recession this year.
• Trade wars are freaking the crap out of investors. Trump’s tariffs are disrupting global trade, increasing costs, reducing margins and annihilating business confidence. And not just in America. They’re basically making investors think, ‘Screw this. I’m probably better off out of the market until all this becomes a bit clearer.’ 
• The ‘I’ word is back. We thought we had inflation licked. Nope. Trade wars mean inflation. Australia’s consumer inflation expectations surged to 4.6% in February 2025, up from 4% in January, marking the highest level since April 2024. That’s BEFORE Trump’s trade war policies came into play. What might those figures look like six months from now?
• The ‘AI trade’ is crumbling. The ‘Magnificent 7’…the big Nasdaq tech companies that hogged the most gains from the AI boom…officially went into bear market territory early this month. These are giant companies that have propped up global share markets for years…

We’re entering a period of adjustment that could turn into multiple recessions in multiple countries. But these are macro details.

I’ve achieved my record by trading the technicals.

My charts show we could be approaching
THE buying opportunity so far this century.

I’M ABOUT TO SUGGEST
WHAT
YOU SHOULD BUY…

Now, I mentioned above the ASX has been following a strict script for 15 years now.

This is that script…

This is that ‘unseen topography’ of the S&P/ASX 200 we just mentioned…but expanded out to the last 15 years.

Like waves lapping up against the beach, there is a rhythm to the way markets move. You can see it here.

When you get in tune with that rhythm, you give yourself the best chance of entering stocks when the momentum is on your side.

And your chance of success goes up massively.

This is exactly what I’ve been doing for the members of my trading advisory since April 2018.

Since then, we’ve traded the last three major market buy signals that you can see in the chart above.

But what I want you to notice is something most investors miss…

Take a look again at the clear channel that prices have traded in over the last 15 years….

See the blue colour at the top and the red on the bottom?

When prices are near the top of the channel in the blue zone…you have to tread carefully.

When prices fall into the red zone and then turn back up…that is when you want to strike aggressively.

That is how you create returns that most traders dream about.

The last big move was precisely five years ago in March 2020.

The ASX and investor sentiment were relatively stable. And information was still sketchy about this COVID thing emerging from China…

But my technical indicators anticipated a selloff.

On 28 January 2020, I issued an alert labelled ‘VIRUS PANIC’.

We unloaded positions three days later, on 31 January 2020.

This was well before most mainstream advisors had any clue what might be coming…

And then on 13 March the crash happened.

It was relatively short-lived.

But holy smokes, it was brutal.

By 23 March 2020, the ASX 200 had fallen 35% from its peak on 20 February.

And we played the upsurge
that followed perfectly.

These are the gains (and losses) we made on stocks bought in mid- to late-2020 after the COVID crash when the stocks I was tracking entered the buy zone:

As you can see, the gains were plentiful.

And the losses (there will always be losses) were few and relatively small.

The lesson?

When the surf is up you must ride the waves as hard as you can.

Because we all know at some point the swell dies down again and makes surfing difficult.

Trading markets is the same. You have to know when it’s time to paddle out and when it’s time to sit on the sand and wait.

You’re reading this now because conditions are ripe for yet another retest of the bottom of that 15-year channel.

That means:

It’s time you got ready for another
fantastic buying opportunity

Trump is deliberately making tough decisions early in his presidency to get the bad vibes out of the way early.

To realign the US economy away from relying on government support to thriving in a private business-led boom, he needs to cut waste first and then ignite the boom later.

My guess is that he will wait until things are dire before announcing something like financial market regulatory reform, which will unleash a boom.

So bearish market conditions dead ahead will set up the conditions for a boom later in the year.

You don’t want to wait until the boom is obvious before jumping in.

You have to prepare NOW

Why should you listen to me?

For starters, I’ve nailed the up and down moves in the market since the pandemic.

I’ve also been trading the markets for over three decades.

I started my career in the financial markets after getting a graduate position with Swiss Banking Corporation and Dominguez & Barry (now UBS) in 1992.

They put me on the Sydney Futures Exchange trading floor.

That’s where my love affair with the waves of the markets began.

I went on to trade for high-net-worth individuals, including one of the top 10 wealthiest families in Australia.

I was also a broker to many boutique hedge funds — using my proprietary trading techniques to help them find winning trades.

Today, I run a specialist advisory service called Retirement Trader for private investors looking to grow their capital through this strange market we find ourselves in.

And we’re doing it very well right now.

I’ve been in this game long enough to know historic down-moves don’t come out of nowhere. 

They happen when the prevailing trend fails…and passive investors and momentum chasers switch from buyers to sellers.

This is what I see coming.

This is what’s leading to a ‘Big Wednesday’ opportunity.

And I’ve been alerting my followers to its buildup since the start of the year.

For instance…

• We called the oil price fall

‘OIL PRICES READY TO PLUMMET’, my indicators told me at the end of January.

I informed my followers on 1 February of a bearish setup for oil prices.

Here’s what oil has done since…

As the correction in stocks gathered steam, oil prices have fallen. Just as I predicted.

• We called the dollar trade

‘INVESTORS BEWARE’ was the clear title to a warning I sent out on 8 February.

This was regarding the US dollar, where I said ‘a major reversal is unfolding.’ 

In a video on 8 February, I drew this line to show where I thought this reversal would lead…

THIS IS WHERE THAT REVERSAL HAS LED SINCE THEN…

The charts tell you all you need to know.

Another big part of the reversal I see coming is the unwinding of all the tech investing we’ve seen over the last few years…

• We called the cooldown of the AI trade

On 28 February I said, ‘THE SCENE IS SET FOR THE MAGNIFICENT 7 to ACCELERATE TO THE DOWNSIDE.’

You know the Mag 7.

The big tech stocks that have kept the markets respectable for five years.

I predicted a 7% fall in the Nasdaq to around 19,000 was imminent.

Here’s another screenshot of the video demonstration that day…

Forgive the scribbles. This is a live snapshot of what I predicted in real time on 28 February.

Just focus on that yellow-highlighted arrow.

That’s where I predicted the Nasdaq would be very soon.

And here’s where it is at the time of writing…

Tracking just where I said it would, right?

My point is we’re one step ahead of these big moves.

(And, as a result, our positions are holding up extremely well considering the size of the fall in the S&P/ASX 200 recently. Part of that is I don’t hold any financials. And the banking sector has totally swan-dived.)

Now, none of this is because I’m a lucky punter.

It’s because I have decades of experience and the correct strategy.

My followers back me up here. LL writes:

Keith R writes:

Retirement Trader was established in December 2018.

Since then, members have been privy to a strategy that has achieved an average annualised portfolio gain of 25% per year.

Now, for tracking purposes, I’ve assumed a starting pot of $100,000, investing 2% of total capital into every trade, and reinvesting all profits.

This is the simplest and most transparent way I know of to show you how my total trading P&L has fared over the years.

It’s what I would want to know if I was in your shoes.

The overall result has been
25% on average.
 Every year.
From 2018 to 2025.

Let me remind you…

This period was the choppiest…most unpredictable…and, frankly, BIZARRE market in my 30-plus years as a trader.

Believe it or not, the trading climate is about to get even more treacherous.

The conditions in the market I’m seeing RIGHT NOW…going into April 2025…look a LOT like late 2007/2008.

I surfed another trade at that time to epic paper profits. A mistake saw me eat it big time and cost me the lot. I don’t plan on making the same mistake again this year…

In fact, I’ve put a critical safety measure in place to ensure it DOESN’T happen. It’s part of my risk management technique, which I’ll discuss more shortly.

But if you’re interested in making some proactive moves…

What is ‘Big Wednesday’
and when will it happen?

Okay, first of all, I don’t know exactly when ‘Big Wednesday’ will happen.

But I DO know it could happen any day now. In fact, I may even be too late with this report. It could even be happening as you read this.

But what it comes down to is this…

That was an alert I sent out to my followers on 13 March.

A correction is coming.

And not a run-of-the-mill one.

We could see downside in excess of -20% from current levels.

The adjustment phase the US economy is entering as Trump shakes things up is going to cause something big in the markets this year.

It’s not guaranteed. It’s just what my indicators are saying.

And there lies a brilliant opportunity for keen-eyed share traders…

I’m going to give you some moves on playing this eventuality shortly.

Going on past events like this in the markets, ‘Big Wednesday’ is both a huge threat to your current portfolio balance…AND a huge opportunity.

I plan on launching a series of moves to help you take advantage of the huge upswell that follows.

My charts are showing that the entire topography that’s created the price action in the stock markets since the pandemic is shifting.

I’m talking about a complete collapse through to the bottom of the price channel that the market has been trading in for years.

Surfers call a mixed-up ocean that’s all froth and no waves ‘soup’.

The last few years have been a classic ‘soup market’.

Moves up. Moves back down. The odd surge or drop crashing in from nowhere. Noisy, unpredictable. No real momentum.

Think about all the dramatic stuff that’s happened in the last year.

And yet…the ASX 200 only moved…wait for it…1.5% in that time.

Like I say, a soup market.

But the waves are rising.

The ASX 200 has already dropped over -9% in less than a month in 2025.

However, the point is, not everyone has treaded water in this soup market of the last few years.

I have a unique technical strategy for selecting and TIMING trades in unfavourable market conditions. And I have been sharing these trade alerts with a small handful of like-minded investors via email.

One of these investors is Wayne, who emailed to say:

As David D puts it:

Nicholas D writes:

Alan R writes:

What I do is not rocket science.

I simply surf the waves that are coming.

If it’s a flat market, we bide our time.

If it’s treacherous, we stay out of the water.

If the surf is up…WE GO FOR IT.

As far as I know, no other analyst in Australia is doing anything like this.

The crux is this:

Trading is all about
smart wave selection

I’ve traded the market for over 30 years. Every trading day — bar a few much-needed holidays.

Over that time, I’ve developed a system that overlaps technical and fundamental analysis to tell you WHEN to trade...and when NOT to trade.

Over the last year or two, we have traded well. But not often.

But if and when this ‘Big Wednesday’ move occurs, we’re going to get aggressive.

As in surfing, you need to be willing to wait it out for the perfect setup.

Sometimes that can take ages. It means hanging out until the multitude of variables all stack up in your favour — size, height, angle, tide, timing, position and, most importantly, placement.

In trading there are even more variables you need to take into account — momentum, distribution setups, risk-reward ratios, correlations, breakouts from pivotal points, fundamental data and much more.

If you interpret these variables correctly, you can make profitable trades.

Basically, you play each wave as it rolls in.

This is exactly what we did at Retirement Trader before the COVID crash in 2020 (I took profits in many positions just before it occurred).

This was my SELL ALERT sent on 30 January 2020:

After I sent this, we outperformed the ASX by nearly five times during the bull market.

Then, when market conditions changed, we changed!

Now we have another big change coming…

This new Trump-defined market is what the Retirement Trader model was built for.

We have managed to hold on to the incredible gains made from 2019–2021. And traded smartly since.

That is how members could have made average annual returns of 25% since inception.

‘If you can ride junk,
you can ride anything.’

Kelly Slater is arguably the world’s best surfer.

He comes from Huntington Beach, California, which is NOT world-class surf. Many of the world’s best surfers come from there.

Why?

Because learning to ride windy, frothy and choppy conditions hones your wave-judging and overall surfing abilities more than just riding clean, glassy waves all the time.

If you can surf junk, you can surf anything.

If you can find just a few little power-pockets in soupy waves, you’ll have an even better chance of finding the right spot when the share market’s version of ‘Big Wednesday’ arrives.

Again, so there’s no confusion, I’m not predicting a market move that takes place LITERALLY on a Wednesday.

If you can pinpoint moves weeks in advance with that precision, I’d love to know your secret!

I call it a share market ‘Big Wednesday’ because, like the Great Swell of ’74, I’m predicting a market move that will be talked about long after the fact.

You’ve seen what’s happened so far this year.

US tech stocks have plunged further than the major indexes.

I predicted that. And I think it’s a trend that will persist.

Australian financial stocks have seen aggressive selling.

I predicted that, too. I predict they’ll be even more bludgeoned in the coming mega selloff.

I’m now not the only one predicting this move.

Which makes me think it’s very close…

The Economic Times just published a piece on Warren Buffett’s selling moves last year, titled:

It talked about Buffett’s recent decision to cut his stock holdings and amass a record cash holding of $334 billion.

‘Social media erupted. Memes flooded in. Some called it a stroke of genius, others questioned his timing. Then, the stock market tumbled…’

Equitymaster asked on 14 March:

‘Is a historic market crash coming?’

The same day, Business Insider declared that only a historic global stock selloff could force Trump to drop his trade war.

Then there’s this from MarketWatch:

Money.com says:

‘The stock market not only can’t find its footing in 2025, but it’s also in danger of losing its grip altogether.’

Robert Kiyosaki of Rich Dad Poor Dad fame said on 12 March:

‘The EVERYTHING BUBBLE is bursting. I am afraid this crash may be the biggest in history.’

Don’t get me wrong…

All the above consists of the usual scaremongering you see in mainstream media when markets get dicey.

But it shows SOMETHING is up.

Especially combined with what I’m seeing in my charts.

So, what’s potentially coming?
And what should you do? 

Here’s my immediate advice.

Don’t make many new share trades in the near-future.

My trading model demands that we see signs of a major shift in momentum before jumping into positions aggressively.

I think that shift is coming…

And I’m going to give you my attack plan for it.

What I do is look at the technical ‘topography’ of the market and I overlap it with fundamental data.

Then I identify specific trades and use more technical signs to time the entry points in those trades.

The big fundamental factor right now — obviously — is President Trump.

And the uncertainty over the tariff volleys that he has hurled at us ever since his appointment.

Trump wants to make it difficult for goods produced in countries like China, Mexico and India to be sold in the US. Instead, he wants to enhance production in the US.

This is easier said than done though.

You’re now seeing inflation tick up again.

And countries retaliating to Trump’s tariffs.  

All this – combined with what
my charts are
telling me – signals
a high likelihood of
a historic
market down-move

Perhaps the biggest one since I started as a wet-behind-the-ears phone jockey in the trading pits in the 90s.

Some big waves are coming.

Maybe not in April. But I’d say there’s better odds this move will take place in the first half of 2025 as opposed to the second half.

Which is why I’ve formulated a specific trading plan for it.

I’ve split this plan into two parts.

Part 1: Where I give you the ‘lay of the surf’. I’ll show you where we are now in the markets…the potential scenario I see getting more probable each week…and we’ll look at which ASX stocks are most vulnerable. (Some of these may get so wrecked…and take so long to recover…you might want to consider selling now if you own them…)

Part 2: A series of stock buys to make…at key ‘near-bottom’ price levels…which could be the canniest share purchases you make in your investing lifetime.

We are approaching a critical moment.

If I’m right, you’ve got a choice right now.

Sit back as it happens. Or take measures to be on the winning side. 

Bennett Goodspeed (great name!) was a popular investment strategist and author in the early 80s.

He said:

‘A crisis is comprised of danger and opportunity; those who sense change in the early stages will tend to have the most bountiful harvest.’

I’ve been around the tracks long enough to know this is absolutely true.

If you get a whiff of something before the crowd…and make the right moves…your harvest is bountiful.

Now, there have certainly been ups and downs since I started Retirement Trader in 2018.

We had the COVID crash and then a mad run-up in prices.

You could even call that a ‘Small Wednesday’.

And we played that period very effectively.

From when we started to the peak of the market in mid-August 2021…provided you followed ALL instructions exactly and reinvested all gains…we saw a 167% portfolio return in two years and nine months.

During that time period, 2019 to August 2021, the S&P/ASX 200 was up just 34%.

So, our portfolio of trades outperformed the index by nearly five times (4.91 times).

From September 2021, though, we entered this frustrating ‘soup market’.

Loads of sideways trading.

AI stocks and the Mag 7 kept humming, but loads of other stocks like miners, financials and most small-caps languished.

At Retirement Trader, we played that period smartly as well.

We used smart position sizing. We took part profits at key points. We sat on the sidelines when it was smart to do so. We stuck rigidly to stop losses. And jumped on key opportunities when they presented themselves.

Point I’m making is, we managed to hold on to the incredible gains made from 2019–2021. And traded the ‘soup market’ smartly since.

That is how members could have made average annual returns of 25% since inception.

As member SS attests, this has been pretty useful advice in a strange time in the markets and global economy…

‘After a couple of decades looking for guidance that would grow my wealth instead of the brokers’, FINALLY, someone who talks my language, and is cautious.

‘Murray gives advice as if it were his own money on the line. I get the feeling that it is.

‘I get his liking for graphic presentation and trust his reading of the signals. Finally, someone who is not losing me money.’

Now, if I’m right about what’s coming soon, a LOT of unaware share investors are going to lose money in 2025.

But…there will be great opportunities for those who surf the wave well and don’t wipe out.

I’ve identified in advance a specific stock strategy that helps you do that.

But how have I
picked these trades?

It’s a methodology that started here:

As I’ve said, the Sydney Futures Exchange is where I started my career in the early 90s in the pits and on the phones.

It was there where I witnessed first-hand how traders move the market.

What happens after long periods of trading sideways is that traders get edgy.

They’re edgy right now. You can SEE it in the charts. And in the media…

Picture pro traders, the guys that move the markets, as surfers holding a surf report — but with no idea how to read it.

If you know how to read a report on swell direction, wave height and local wind conditions, you’re going to have a much better chance of catching waves. But I’m seeing complete cluelessness out there right now.

If you take a step back...and look at what’s REALLY going on — with the help of charts and with the underlying TOPOGRAPHY of the market in mind — you start to make sense of things.

Detect patterns.

And formulate a PLAN.

I’ve put everything you need to know immediately in one place, in what I call:

‘The 2025 Big Wednesday Playbook’.

In a second, I’ll show you how you can download it to any device and be reading it within minutes.

Even when the markets are dead-calm, having an action plan is the right thing to do.

But as an investor, there’s no better feeling than formulating a plan when things feel like they’re falling off a cliff.

You can rest easy while everyone else is freaking out.

You have a few protection measures (or hedges) already in place.

And you have some pre-planned moves to execute when the time strikes.

I’m as technical as they come.

But I also consider the market’s broad signals.

And as we go into quarter two of 2025, nearly all the signals are pointing towards some kind of very big, historic down-move.

At Retirement Trader, we’ve played several of these moves before very accurately.

(Although possibly not on the same scale as what could be coming…)

If you even half-agree, then you should have ‘The 2025 Big Wednesday Playbook’ at your disposal.

First, you’ll get a deeper lay-of-the-land we don’t have space for in this whitepaper.

I’ll give you a more detailed picture of the structure that’s built up in the markets over the last few years...the reasons why that structure is now failing...and the likely scenario for the market once the big shift starts happening.

As of this writing, the CNN Fear & Greed Index continues to signal ‘Extreme Fear’, at 21.

Now, that could have fallen back by the time you read this.

In fact, we could well see a bit of calm before the big storm.

As ‘The 2025 Big Wednesday Playbook’ shows, this won’t be an ordinary correction.

Right now, we are probably close to the bottom of the first wave down…and could expect a bounce shortly. But I reckon we will ultimately see further selling pressure.

If we hit that target of 7,000 (the point of control, which I mentioned earlier) in the S&P/ASX 200…it’s ALL ON.

So, the first part of the Playbook is basically my extended ‘surf report’.

And then…we’ll move on to strategy…

Four sectors to AVOID

For a start, there are FOUR MOST AT-RISK SECTORS I reckon could get totally swamped when this down-move happens.

Some of them are already struggling.

Some stocks in these sectors will be prime buys when Big Wednesday plays out. Others…should be left well alone. Oil and coal prices are both testing major lows. I reckon Big Wednesday won’t be kind to certain stocks there.

I’ll name the most at-risk stocks in ‘The 2025 Big Wednesday Playbook’.  

This will include three current market darlings that are ALREADY coming under stiff selling pressure.

IF YOU OWN THESE THREE STOCKS, CONSIDER REDUCING YOUR POSITION NOW…OR GETTING OUT COMPLETELY.

When the dust settles after a sharp fall in stocks…then we get our board and paddle out!

For a start…I will be considering companies with exposure to the US economy.

I reckon Trump will want to fire up the economy with financial sector deregulation and tax cuts.

In ‘The 2025 Big Wednesday Playbook’, I reveal three key targets here.

These guys have super-solid charts. If they get taken down with the rest of the market…they have a great chance at rebounding quickly.

One stock to BUY as soon
as I give you the word

I’ll also name what could be the best long-term Big Wednesday buy of the lot.

It’s a miner. And, as you know, many ASX mining stocks have been in misery mode for a year or more now.

Big Wednesday will bring these guys down even further.

I reckon it could get taken down to its 2021 major low.

Then you’ll see a bunch of stop losses set off.

If we DO see this major swan dive in all markets…and those stop losses are hit….causing even more selling pressure…this could be a chance to buy one of the best resource stocks on the ASX for chump change.

A brilliant portfolio position for the long term.

That’s a sample of what will be covered in ‘The 2025 Big Wednesday Playbook’.

Please be very clear about
what’s on the table here...

Well, to start, NOTHING might be on the table.

I could be wrong. I might be misreading the market. No one is perfect and there’s no such thing as a sure thing in share trading.

But with that in mind, you need to know exactly what we’re aiming for before the year is out...and what my chart analysis is telling me is very much within our grasp: the chance to make a series of ‘right-at-the-bottom’ trades that investment legends are made of.

Better than buying right at the bottom of the Dow in 1987 when the index nosedived 22% in a single day...maybe even better than the 75% rebound after the 1973–74 bear market.

That bear market gave Warren Buffett the chance to buy a stake in The Washington Post — an investment that has subsequently increased by more than 100 times the purchase price, before dividends.

I aim to try and help you put on MULTIPLE trades just like that one.

Sir John Templeton was a master at entering markets at the point he called ‘maximum pessimism’ and surfing them higher. Each $10,000 invested in the Templeton Fund’s Class A shares in 1954 would have grown to $2 million by 1992, when he left the fund.

Templeton was the Kelly Slater of investing. Surfing the most perilous investments while everyone else watched on from the shore.

For instance, he bought shares of every public European company at the outset of World War II in 1939. Most of them were already bankrupt. As surfers would put it, that was a ‘gnarly’ decision. He did it with borrowed money, too. Four years later, his investment had quadrupled.

That’s the style of trade we’re going after here.

And remember: this is not just ‘hit and hope’ stuff.

I trust what my charts are telling me, because over the years I’ve been able to predict and trade recurring price patterns in the market...

Underlying patterns – patterns that
keep repeating – across all prices,
all stocks and all time scales!

So, how do you get access to my ‘2025 Big Wednesday Playbook’?

I have temporarily arranged a massive 50% discount on membership to my Retirement Trader advisory.

And this comes with a membership 100% refund backstop.

Meaning, anytime in the first 30 days, you can get even that 50%-discounted membership fully refunded if you wish.

Take a month to go over the Playbook and test-drive Retirement Trader.

If you decide it’s not for you, contact my team via phone or email and you’ll be refunded every single cent of your membership.

AND YOU CAN KEEP THE PLAYBOOK WITH MY COMPLIMENTS.  

A few provisos, though. The first being:

I’m pulling the plug on this
50%-off deal on
Wednesday night, midnight (AEST), 16 April

It’s a huge chunk of membership dues I’m sacrificing here.

This is for serious investors who get the urgency of the setup here.

Which means if you’re in, I need to hear from you right now.

(Don’t forget, though, you’ll have 30 days that come with a 100% membership refund guarantee.)

If you already know you want to do this, and you want to get the Playbook trades immediately:

JOIN FOR 50% OFF HERE

Another proviso…if you’re out of email contact for big stretches during the week, this probably won’t work for you.

We certainly won’t be trading daily or weekly.

But, as I’ve said…

The days of sitting on our hands for a month or two at a time appear to be ending. Things are starting to move.

That means you’ll need to check your inbox regularly. Daily, if you can.

This is my full-time job. My screens are my roadmap and when a trade opportunity presents itself, I move heaven and earth here at our offices to make sure it gets emailed to my readers as soon as possible. It makes me rather unpopular with our technical team sometimes.

In return, I need to know that I have buy-in from you.

I’ll give you the name of the stock, the code, the entry price, the limit for the entry price, the stop loss, and the initial profit target.

Then I’ll give you a brief writeup explaining what I’ve found, and why I think it’s a risk worth taking.

From there I’ll guide you through the trade, sending you email updates on the position with further action to take — from the moment you enter a position until the time comes to close it.

So to be clear, what you’re getting here is thorough trading guidance from an experienced professional trader.

You’re unlikely to get this guidance anywhere else in Australia...unless you hand over your investment cash and pay someone big money to invest it for you.

Of course, it’s not for everyone.

I don’t expect everyone who tries my trades to find it fits with their investing style and temperament. Everyone’s different.

If you realise after a week or two this isn’t for you...then cancel in the first 30 days.

I'll give you your entire membership fee back.

That’s a rarity.

JOIN FOR 50% OFF HERE
(ENDS MIDNIGHT AEST, WEDNESDAY)

So, what’s the cost?

Well, this advisory is certainly not the cheapest among Fat Tail Investment Research’s stable.

It’s normally $2,999 per year.

But, as I say, I’ve arranged a half-price discount for you that runs until Wednesday, 16 April.

$1,499 instead of $2,999. 

Assess all the arguments and trading ideas in ‘The 2025 Big Wednesday Playbook’. Give the service a full whirl. All the new trades. All the buy and sell signals. Go through my recent alerts to see just how well we’ve played the market so far this year.

All for $1,499 (with a 30-day refund backstop).

You won’t be a cent out of pocket for giving this a go.

Does that sound reasonable?

If:

• You sense markets could be reaching a tipping point…and would like a strategy from a professional who’s traded these kinds of conditions for three decades…
• You want a voice you can trust to help you find solid investments in the stock market…to help you build wealth towards retirement…
• You are fearful of how volatile stocks can be…especially at the moment…and wish to avoid wild risks…
• You want to keep your stress levels down while investing in stocks that make sense to you…
• You want a curated selection of thoughtful, TARGETED trades…rather than being inundated with dozens of ideas, which you then have to choose between…
• You respect RISK MANAGEMENT…and recognise that sometimes, in some periods, the best action is TAKING NO ACTION…
• You are looking for someone with no conflicts of interest..and who wants you to succeed…

…you should take this deal.

If you don’t make money with me,
you won’t remain a member.
Simple as that.

My desire is to have you as a member for many years to come.

That will only happen if you know I am in your corner every step of the way, giving you the best advice I can.

If the above resonates with you…and you understand how useful it is to have a trader with 30 years’ experience guiding you through the coming conditions…

JOIN FOR 50% OFF HERE
(ENDS MIDNIGHT AEST, WEDNESDAY)

Here are a few more words from current members.

Darren S says:

EB says:

Dave says:

Dee says (keep in mind Fat Tail Investment Research is my publisher):

A Dykes says:

Rob Adler says:

Matt R says:

Mark R says:

AA says:

As these words show, I take the responsibility of providing stock trading advice very seriously.

What you’ll get if you take
this special 50%-off invitation

As a member, of course you’ll immediately receive:

‘The 2025 Big Wednesday Playbook’

You’ll receive password-protected access to this straightaway.

Please keep what you find here to yourself. This plan and trading strategy really is for Retirement Trader members only.  

Of course, I can’t nail down exact timings yet. And I might turn out to be completely wrong!

If so, no problem. Our strategy adapts to all market conditions. But there’s no denying the indicators.

And as a potential ‘Big Wednesday’ grows nearer, more will start sounding off.

Broadly, we should view 2025 as a year of two halves.

The front end of the year is shaping up to be very rocky…maybe historically so. But the back end could be setting up as an EPIC huge buying opportunity.

This Playbook shows you how we’re going to surf it here at Retirement Trader.

The overall strategy. The safety measures we’ll be employing.

Stocks that are most in danger (which you could consider selling or even shorting).

And specific stocks you could consider aggressively building positions in…if they drop to key levels.

Retirement Trader Trade Alerts

The core of the advisory. But…as mentioned…these trade alerts will only come when the opportunities present themselves.

I personally find investment newsletters that promise ‘a buy recommendation on the first of every month’ a bit daft.

It may work for them. But markets don’t really work that way.

As such, you’ll need to monitor your inbox fairly regularly, so you’ll get my trades when they’re generated.

Sometimes there might be a couple within a few weeks.

Sometimes we might go a month or more without entering new positions.

The market, not a schedule,
will dictate our trading

The top of each trade alert will contain the key information you need to enter a trade. It will let you know:

• The name and code of the stock to buy.
• A conviction rating out of three stars.
• A risk rating out of five stars.
• Expected timeframe to hold the position.
• Recommended price to pay to enter the stock.
• Stop-loss level to exit the stock and avoid further losses.
• An initial target with instructions on taking some profits and moving the stop loss to ensure the worst outcome will be breaking even on the trade.

This is what it will look like:

Below this key information you will get a comprehensive analysis of each trade, based on fundamental and technical criteria. So you can make an informed decision on every trade.

THE TREASURE TROVE!
Unrestricted Access to the
Entire
Retirement Trader
Buy and Hold List

It’s a pretty great deal you’re getting here.

50% off…and you get keys to the entire Retirement Trader bank vault!

Join now for just $1,499 for one year and you’ll get instant access to the entire portfolio.

This includes all OPEN POSITIONS. You will also be able to see the entire list of CLOSED POSITIONS…and whether they made a gain or a loss.

Video Masterclass Series

Essential viewing, as soon as you decide to take this 50%-off deal. 

This is your ‘soft introduction’ to what we’ll be doing and how we’ll be trading.

In these five video sessions, I walk you through the important elements of the technical analysis model we use to enter trades.

It’ll all be in plain English. As you’ve seen, a big reason members stick with me is that I break things down in a very easy-to-understand way. 

The topics covered are the basics: pivots, distributions, trends, indicators…and how I use all these to find you trades.

If you want to educate yourself to become a consistently profitable trader, you have come to the right place. I want to ensure you understand the process we follow so you have confidence in the decisions made.

Once you have familiarised yourself with the trading approach, then I encourage you to dip into:

The Entire Retirement Trader Update Archive
(UNRESTRICTED ACCESS)

Every two weeks, you will receive a comprehensive market update video that looks at major markets around the world, identifies upcoming trading opportunities, and reviews all open positions.

If you are looking for education about trading markets, the market update videos contain a wealth of information about how I analyse markets and look for opportunities.

You will also receive a written document that covers many topics related to trading the markets.

I discuss trading psychology, money and risk management, macroeconomics, upcoming opportunities, and open trades.

When I receive a trading signal, I will send you a trade alert, which contains all of the information you need to enter a trade with confidence. We can also send you a text message to alert you to the fact that a trade has been sent to your inbox.

I encourage you to go through at least the last month or so’s updates when you join. These will give you a feel of how we’ll be initiating and managing trades…so you’ll know what to expect when you get your first live one!

The Retirement Trader
‘Direct Access’ Email

Members love this. If you have any questions along the way, I’ve set up an email address where you can contact me directly. 

In the early days, we had a cumbersome process that meant emails went through a few hands before arriving in my inbox.

I’ve streamlined it so you can send me them directly, any time.

Sometimes I’ll be able to shoot you a direct reply, if it’s relatively short. Otherwise, I allocate a time during the week when I reply to emails in batches. This is usually on Monday afternoon.

Test it out when you join. Shoot me an email and say hello.

Maybe you would like me to discuss bitcoin. Or wish to know my take on a company you’re already tracking.

Whatever you’d like to say, don’t be shy, and let’s get the communication channels open. Just remember that I cannot provide any personal financial advice.

The Extended Lessons:
Retirement Trader
Strategy Report

Perhaps worth the $1,499 just on its own.

As I’ve said, my career in the markets has spanned from the Sydney Futures Exchange trading floor, fresh out of uni…to stewarding the portfolio of one of Australia’s wealthiest families…to helping thousands of Aussies today trade the market in a calculated, risk-controlled way.  

This report outlines everything I’ve learned along the way in more detail. 

You will learn about ‘widening distributions’ and ‘points of control’ and how we use them to enter profitable trades. It explains the money and risk management tools we use, such as creating ‘free’ call options…and how to work out how much money to invest in each position.

If you found what we’ve covered here useful, wait until you get a load of this…

SPECIAL RESOURCE #1
‘How to Trade Shares
that Go Down’

THIS COULD BE VITAL TO YOU IF BIG WEDNESDAY PLAYS OUT AS I EXPECT.

We may see a shorting opportunity in the banks at some point. Short selling is high risk. It’s definitely not for everyone. Even I use it extremely sparingly.

But it’s worthwhile understanding how it works, what the risks are, and how to do it. Especially if we get a big down-move.

This reports gives you the full rundown on how to place bets on falling share prices.

I’ll take you through everything you need to know. But I’ll do it without the jargon. And remember, if you have any questions, you can always contact me via the direct member email address.

SPECIAL RESOURCE #2
‘How to Trade Using CFDs’

A CFD (contract for difference) is a tradeable contract between a client and a broker, who are exchanging the difference in the current value of a share, currency, commodity or index and its value at the contract’s end.

CFDs involve leverage. Like short selling, they are not for everyone and carry extra risk. And they are by no means an essential part of Retirement Trader.

The portfolio returns cited in this letter are from good old-fashioned trading stocks…no leverage at all.

But if you’re a slightly more sophisticated trader with a higher tolerance for risk, you may be tempted to employ CFDs on our trades.

This report gives you a warts-and-all breakdown on how to do that…again all in plain English.

So, there we have it.

50% off.

Until midnight (AEST), Wednesday, 16 April.

And you’ve a guaranteed option of getting even that $1,499 refunded in full within 30 days. No questions asked.

It’s a stunning ‘intro’ to what we do here.

Thanks for giving me the
time to read this whitepaper

I hope you got something out of it, even if you don’t take this deal today.

It’s been a tough five years.

And the rest of this year could be very interesting indeed!

But these are exactly the times you want to be proactive…rather than reactive.

As Bill Gross, known as ‘the Bond King’, said:

‘Investing is “dominated by the wave of either public opinion or institutional opinion, which moves prices forward… [If you] refuse to believe in the wave, then you can’t surf.

‘The point is when you are surfing, you want to ride the wave, but you also want to recognise that there’s a crest and that ultimately a good surfer has to kick out.’

I plan on showing the epic waves to surf.

AND the ones to ‘kick out of’.

Are you with me?

THEN CLICK THE LINK BELOW…

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Editor, Retirement Trader

JOIN NOW

Still undecided?

Then check these out…

You’ve seen loads of member testimonials in this letter.

These are genuine words from regular investors who are seeing way-above-normal returns from my trades.

If you want to know how Retirement Trader could work for you, don’t listen to me. Listen to them!

Here’s a fresh batch of feedback from the middle of January, 2025. Just look at the sheer volume! You don’t generate words like this unless you’re doing something very right…

Nigel D

Rob K

DM

Steve

Trevor O

David O

Stu W

JG

The Patient Punter

PAP

Kevin Jackson

Paul E

Peter

Ted

Steve M

John Harris

J Scott

Andrew

TB

Roger Hanckel

RH

Keith R

Sam V

LL

LCJ

JD

DM

G Povey

TC

David Egan

Rose P

Alexander John Churchill

Christopher

R Smith

JOIN NOW

CLICK HERE TO JOIN NOW